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11-30-2012, 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by rumrokh View Post
It is correct that with each pick, if the Blues aren't selected, the chance of the next pick being the Blues is higher.
So, they have precisely a 4% chance of being first overall. Assuming they don't get the first pick, there are three scenarios for the second pick: 49 balls remain, 48 balls remain, or 47 balls remain. In each scenario, the Blues have just over a 4% chance to get the second pick.
However, if you're looking at their total chance of getting the second pick, it's actually under 4% because of their chance of getting the first pick.

The numbers I mentioned in the previous post are the chance that they'll be picked by a certain point, not their chances of having a particular pick, assuming they have not yet been selected.

As a matter of fact, a friend of mine recently cooked this up:

x axis represents picks and y axis represents the chance of selection. Red is 3 balls, blue is 2 balls, and black is 1 ball. Two balls, as with other things in life, are awesomely (technical term) better than one is.

But knowing the Blues' historical luck, they'll implement a new system.
Neat. So, theoretically, we should have about a 50/50 chance of landing in the top 12 or so. I may be somewhat of a betting man, but I really like those odds.

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