no prospects at center
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11-30-2012, 04:12 PM
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Originally Posted by
It is correct that with each pick, if the Blues aren't selected, the chance of the next pick being the Blues is higher.
So, they have precisely a 4% chance of being first overall. Assuming they don't get the first pick, there are three scenarios for the second pick: 49 balls remain, 48 balls remain, or 47 balls remain. In each scenario, the Blues have just over a 4% chance to get the second pick.
However, if you're looking at their total chance of getting the second pick, it's actually under 4% because of their chance of getting the first pick.
The numbers I mentioned in the previous post are the chance that they'll be picked by a certain point, not their chances of having a particular pick, assuming they have not yet been selected.
As a matter of fact, a friend of mine recently cooked this up:
x axis represents picks and y axis represents the chance of selection. Red is 3 balls, blue is 2 balls, and black is 1 ball. Two balls, as with other things in life, are awesomely (technical term) better than one is.
But knowing the Blues' historical luck, they'll implement a new system.
Neat. So, theoretically, we should have about a 50/50 chance of landing in the top 12 or so. I may be somewhat of a betting man, but I really like those odds.
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