Thread: Prospect Info: Official Penguins Prospects Thread
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11-30-2012, 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
General success rate of any draft pick is around 30-40%. 6 D prospects x .35 = 2.1 NHL defenders. It's not pulling numbers out of a dark place. I get your point though, but I was just being realistic. I would put the expected # between 1 and 3 D-men out of that group. You have to agree that it is going to be less than 6.

Every prospect looks good until they get into the NHL.

Bortz is unable to stay healthy and a fringe talent when that happens
Strait is probably a 6th/7th NHL D man. Zero offense, good defense
DP and Maatta are very far away
Morrow hasn't looked that great in the AHL (prob has most potential of all prospects).
Dumoulin has looked pretty solid in the AHL
Depres has had an underwhelming AHL season so far (poor defensively-so was Letang early on). He has all the tools, but struggles to use them at times.
I haven't seen Harrington play, but hear good things.

As of now, I would put money on Dumoulin and probably Morrow after another year in the AHL as poised to be NHL defenders we "want" on the Pens team. We are wanting to see "dominating" AHL performances to indicate these guys will be decent NHLers.
The success rate for 1st round picks is usually around 60%-70%. So probably about 3 of the Pens 1st round picks will make it of the 4 (I'd say Morrow, Despres and Maatta would make the NHL, Pouliot is the most likely bust). Of 2nd round picks, usually about 30%-40% make the NHL, so probably about 1 of the 3 2nd round picks will make the NHL (hard to tell between Harrington and Dumoulin, with Sneep being the bust. I feel higher on Dumoulin right now). That's 4 or 5 of 7 will make it.

There's also Hockey's future, which has Despres (2nd-3rd D), Harrington (3rd-4th D), Dumoulin (3rd-4th D) and Bortuzzo (4th-5th D) very likely of making their potential. Pouliot (1st-2nd D), Morrow (1st-2nd D) and Maatta (2nd-3rd D) all have an average chance of reaching their potential (so about 75%). Case in point, over 50% of the D we have drafted will make the NHL. I think definitely Maatta, Morrow, Despres, Bortuzzo and Dumoulin will make the NHL, with Pouliot, Harrington and Sneep being the most likely to bust. Also remember, Harrington was the youngest player drafted in his draft, and he probably would have been a 1st round pick in the draft the next year. Either 5 of the 8 or 6 of the 8 will make it by math. In reality, I'd say 6 or 7 of the 8 definitely will make it (all but Sneep and possible Bortuzzo if he doesn't get healthy).

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