Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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11-30-2012, 06:30 PM
How's the thesis?
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Durham NC
Originally Posted by
Awesome, now i don't have to do that
Hope you don't mind me reposting this to the initial post. Very cool to see.
What was your criteria (sorry if i missed that) for determining success/failure?
Basically I took a look at a mix of games played and offensive production (mostly for forwards). If a player has say >500 games played but not a lot of offensive output I'll take a look at their TOI and their reputation. So a guy like Wayne Primeau who wasn't much of a top 6er will still get credit as he was a solid #3 centerman for quite a few years and managed to get a lot of GP. Whereas a guy like Wade Belak never really managed to have the same level of impact despite the number of games played. With dmen it was mostly games played then TOI unless it was an obvious case. There were a few instances (Babchuk being one) that the player would have a significant number of games played, but never really had high ice time or if they did it was only for one or two seasons and was not sustained by them beyond that.
Originally Posted by
Suprising. Was definitly expecting more goaly and dmen busts, though i geuss thats accounted for in the more recetn drafts. very cool none the less. I would definitely heavily favor forwards in the first going forward
Honestly a good bit of that may have a good bit to do with the adage that dmen take longer to develop. IMO with drafting a forward you should expect to see them become whatever kind of impact player they will turn out to be by age 23, late bloomers like Penner not withstanding. On the other hand with dmen you can often see someone not manage to crack a roster season after season but eventually emerge to be a pretty solid player even heading into their late 20s like Colaiacovo and Harrison have managed to do. From say the 07 draft alone it wouldn't in the least bit surprise me to see Plante and Petrecki turn out to be solid pros, even if they're listed as busts at the moment due to having had minimal NHL impact to date.
Last edited by DaveG: 11-30-2012 at
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