Thread: Prospect Info: Official Penguins Prospects Thread
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11-30-2012, 09:21 PM
  #859
Mr Jiggyfly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wgknestrick View Post
General success rate of any draft pick is around 30-40%. 6 D prospects x .35 = 2.1 NHL defenders. It's not pulling numbers out of a dark place. I get your point though, but I was just being realistic. I would put the expected # between 1 and 3 D-men out of that group. You have to agree that it is going to be less than 6.

Every prospect looks good until they get into the NHL.

Bortz is unable to stay healthy and a fringe talent when that happens
Strait is probably a 6th/7th NHL D man. Zero offense, good defense
DP and Maatta are very far away
Morrow hasn't looked that great in the AHL (prob has most potential of all prospects).
Dumoulin has looked pretty solid in the AHL
Depres has had an underwhelming AHL season so far (poor defensively-so was Letang early on). He has all the tools, but struggles to use them at times.
I haven't seen Harrington play, but hear good things.

As of now, I would put money on Dumoulin and probably Morrow after another year in the AHL as poised to be NHL defenders we "want" on the Pens team. We are wanting to see "dominating" AHL performances to indicate these guys will be decent NHLers.
I don't pay attention to stats. I just care what my eyes show me. Stats also don't account for their individual talent and the Pens propensity to draft and develop quality blueliners.

I know the chances of all of these guys living up to their potential is slim. However, I think the over under is at least 5 of these prospects play significantly in the NHL.

Bort was healthy up until the last calendar year, so I wouldn't say he has trouble staying healthy. Both he and Strait should be able to find steady NHL work on a third pairing, be it with the Pens or another team. They are the kind of players, much like Scuds (who was also called a fringe NHLer), that will do all of the little things to help your team win.

Morrow, again like Despres, will be much more effective in the NHL. I never bought the whole "dominate the A" argument. I've seen too many cases that suggest it doesn't mean a whole lot, when trying to determine how good of an NHL player a prospect will ultimately become.

Harrington has the look of a top end #5, or maybe if things go well, a #4.

I have no idea how the others will eventually shake out, but those 5 I'm sold on having NHL careers.

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