Anze Kopitar vs Jason Spezza
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12-01-2012, 06:59 PM
Join Date: Apr 2010
Originally Posted by
I'm not sure what makes you think a forward's prime lasts until they are 34.
(although this is only goals)
Of course, this is not set in stone, but I think that saying his prime will last for another half decade is more than a little optimistic. Especially considering Spezza had a 3 year stretch where he scored at 1.32, 1.30 and 1.21 points per game, following that with 3 seasons of less than a point per game before his recent resurgence scoring at 1.05 points per game.
tend to agree that a forwards prime generally won't last until 34, but at the same time, I definitely don't agree that a forwards prime is a function of his point production.
Also, at least the first graph studied a period of Seasons (83-2000) durring which a there was a steady drop in scoring league wide, from 7.8 GPG to 7 at the mid point, all the way down to 5.5 GPG by the end. So when that first group of players reached 29 years of age, league wide scoring had dropped almost a GPG, and by the time the last group studied reached 29, scoring had gone from about 6.8 all the way down to 5.5, a goal and a half less per game. Given that Assists per Goal throughout the period stayed relatively stagnant at around 1.6 to 1.7, and the players studied had a worst of about .385 pts/g to a best of .455, it seams as though the league wide scoring had a bigger effect than did their respective ages, or at very least added a substantial amount of noise to the data making the chart relatively useless when trying to gauge a players peak point production years.
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