Thread: Prospect Info: 2012-2013 Blues Prospects
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12-02-2012, 04:34 AM
  #403
rumrokh
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I'll reiterate: Peoria, as a team, is terrible.

The impact this has on any given player can be huge. In Schwartz's case, he has the second most shots on the team. I can't attest to the quality of any given shot, but shot numbers relative to teammates' shot numbers tend to indicate quality of play, ability to get the puck and play in the offensive zone, and quality of minutes - you can't get shots without being played. As far as I know, we cannot get AHL icetime stats, but with great regularity, the players with the most shots on a team are among the most played - and the highest goal-scorers. And he wouldn't get icetime if he were playing poorly.

And what do you know, Schwartz is one goal behind Peoria's leading scorer. They're that bad. Check out the number of shots guys on better teams have. The top scorers in the league have 60+ shots and they are each one of several such guys on their respective teams with that many shots (only two guys on Peoria have over 40, Schwartz is one of them).

Even more important to notice: he has so few assists. Even if you never saw him play for CC, compare that with the play you saw with the Blues. He can score, but he is definitely a playmaker. In fact, on the Blues, I firmly believe he could have easily been a point-per-game player in the seven games he played; but the guys he set up with great passes couldn't finish them. That's magnified in the AHL, which is a league with high speed and physicality and good goaltending, but the overall hockey sense and total-package finishing is dramatically lower by comparison.

Schwartz will look better with better players, on a better team, with minutes and linemates that suit his strengths rather than whatever role he has to shoulder on a wretched team. His stats in the AHL are useless at worst, vanity at best, because what matters is how he looks when he plays with the Blues.

Check out Backes' numbers in the AHL in 06-07: 31gp 10g 3a 13p. He was also a -10. Then he came up that season and scored 10 goals and 13 assists in 49 games with the Blues (and was +6 on a Blues team with a -40 differential). That's just one easy example of a player whose production in the AHL cannot tell you much. Check out Shattenkirk. No points and even +/- in ten games in 10-11 before coming up as one of the best rookies in the league. Young players' production in the AHL is erratic, period.

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