Are the Americans going to overtake hockey in our lifetime?
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12-02-2012, 11:08 AM
Join Date: Aug 2012
At some point it will happen, however not in *our* lifetime.
In 100 years, maybe. But we would have to assume that Canada doesn't grow as much as the US, because as I see right now, our perception is based on todays numbers and not in the future growth. If we are talking about hockey in general we have to talk about (1) population of hockey fans (2) hockey players produced [in general] (3) hockey players in the nhl (4) popularity of the sport (5) achievements.
Aside from not assuming Canada won't grow as much as the US, like some are suggesting, you would also have to assume European hockey giants like Russia, won't grow in terms of talent. But it's out of topic.
So (1) That could happen.
(2) That could happen, although it would take 100 years, given the fact that popularity is still a factor in the US, for kids who decide. Although as we see in the olympics, in almost every sport the US dominates, well aside from China.
(3) Here is an interesting article about NHL nationality breakdown:
"After the 1970s, the Canadian dominance gradually diminished as players from the Unites States, Sweden and Finland began to find their way to the NHL in greater numbers. By the end of the 1980s, the share of Canadians in the league had dropped to approximately 75% and hovers now around the 50% mark."
(4) Will it knock baseball, football, basketball out of the big 3? No. It will vary by state, that's for sure.
(5) Going back to number (3), the US growth might have to do with a lot of positive outcomes from the NHL or international competitions.
It's safe to say at some point it will overtake Canada, but will it match Canada's domination in hockey, no. Give it 100 years of progress, then it might happen. But not in our lifetime.
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