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12-02-2012, 11:29 AM
  #66
Warm Cookies
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Here's the top 56 "half seasons" in terms of adjusted PPG from '94 to '12. ES GF/GA ratio with player on the ice and On/Off ratios are also listed. For comparison with Crosby's 2010-11 half season, it's important to remember that those ratios are for the full season, so in each player's best 41+ game stretch that season, it's very likely that their ratios were often significantly higher as well. Amazingly, Crosby's 2011 is the 18th best of the 55 player-half seasons in adjusted PPG and also both 18th/55 in ES GF/GA ratio and On/Off ratio. Again, considering that the ratios for other players are for full seasons, Crosby's ranking (among these 55 half seasons) would likely be lower if compared to those players' half season ratios. This would seem to contradict the notion that his half season was more outstanding due to "all around" play, rather than pure offensive brilliance (no surprise there, honestly). There are also other factors to consider: quality of linemates, defense/goaltending, off-ice comparisons, and the fact that forwards can control offensive portion more than defensive portion of the ratios. Crosby did not have the best linemates and had Malkin's line as part of off-ice comparison, neither of which helps him much.

HS FS FS
PLAYER Year PPG GF/GA On/Off
Lemieux 1996 2.54 1.20 0.99
Jagr 2001 2.01 1.40 1.34
Jagr 1996 1.98 1.50 1.44
Lemieux 1997 1.94 1.47 1.97
Jagr 2000 1.94 1.68 2.03
Lemieux 2001 1.90 1.51 1.39
Lemieux 2003 1.89 0.70 0.46
Selanne 1999 1.88 1.53 2.50
Jagr 1999 1.85 1.37 1.70
Forsberg 2003 1.83 2.47 2.55
Lindros 1999 1.82 2.05 2.36
Crosby 2007 1.82 1.45 1.64
Ovechkin 2010 1.80 2.34 1.89
Francis 1996 1.80 1.46 1.33
Lindros 1997 1.76 1.85 1.64
Jagr 1998 1.76 1.56 1.63
Ovechkin 2008 1.75 1.59 1.97
Crosby 2011 1.74 1.79 1.82
Gretzky 1994 1.74 0.76 0.88
Malkin 2012 1.73 1.46 1.42
Sakic 2001 1.70 2.28 2.10
Jagr 1997 1.69 1.47 1.88
Malkin 2008 1.68 1.44 1.44
LeClair 1999 1.67 2.27 1.78
Thornton 2003 1.66 1.32 1.39
Alfredsson 2008 1.65 1.24 1.21
Fedorov 1994 1.64 1.77 1.60
Lindros 1995 1.63 2.11 2.66
Crosby 2010 1.62 1.31 1.45
Thornton 2006 1.62 1.78 2.63
Kariya 1997 1.61 2.06 2.57
Thornton 2007 1.61 1.60 1.78
Malkin 2009 1.61 1.46 1.44
SedinH 2010 1.59 1.62 1.61
Selanne 1997 1.58 1.67 1.96
Forsberg 2001 1.57 1.93 1.46
Kovalchuk 2006 1.57 1.04 1.00
Ovechkin 2009 1.57 1.28 1.22
Bure 2001 1.56 1.10 1.60
Sakic 2000 1.55 1.82 1.91
LeClair 1997 1.55 1.98 2.37
Alfredsson 2006 1.55 1.85 1.32
Lindros 1996 1.55 1.47 1.17
Forsberg 2004 1.55 2.25 2.10
Jagr 2006 1.54 1.92 1.94
Bure 2000 1.54 1.48 1.46
Forsberg 1998 1.54 1.23 1.29
Bure 1994 1.53 1.10 1.16
St. Louis 2007 1.51 1.16 1.74
Gretzky 1998 1.51 0.97 1.34
Iginla 2007 1.51 1.26 1.03
Selanne 1996 1.50 1.22 1.43
Jagr 1995 1.50 1.71 1.78
Elias 2001 1.50 2.27 1.78
Fedorov 1996 1.49 2.44 1.77
Forsberg 1999 1.49 1.87 1.91
MEAN 1.68 1.60 1.67
MEDIAN 1.63 1.51 1.63
Many thanks for doing the legwork. But to be honest, I don't know how your "GF/GA" and "On/Off" are calculated, what they represent, and how they're related to each other. The link you provided for methodology bolded the "AdjEV+/-" over players' entire careers.

I apologize for missing something that's probably completely obvious to the initiated, but this can all be a bit dizzying for a non-statistician, haha.

I would also humbly suggest that the "best 41 games to start a season" might be a more representative comparison, if we're talking about Crosby's feat relative to the best of other superstars.

Quote:
Not sure how far back those stats go, and doubt they would change the On/Off numbers very much for non-shutdown forwards.
A face-off win is in and of itself an integral part of the game though, as a direct way to gain possession. I think it's relation to On/Off number is irrelevant. There's an inherent bias against wingers in including that stat when determining value, but centers do generally have more responsibilities, and it seems irresponsible to ignore an elite, quantifiable facet of a player's game.

As for zone starts, territorial advantage plays a pretty big part in the rules (penalties, icing), with the goal being to penalize the offending team with better scoring opportunities for their opponent. I would think that would be a significant factor in a player's production. But if there are no stats for it, it's not really worth discussing in this forum. Just some potential context.

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