View Single Post
Old
12-04-2012, 12:11 PM
  #467
FLYguy3911
Registered User
 
FLYguy3911's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Country: United States
Posts: 9,122
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Coors bloats his 3B numbers (which add to his slugging - though CBP would add to his HR totals so it may be a wash), but I'm not sure I'm willing to concede that his OBP would suddenly drastically drop from .363 and .389 ('11 and '12 numbers). He is also only going to be 27 going into next year - he is just now entering his prime... so '12 (a .863 OPS) may not have been an abberation, it may have been progress.

Also, playing CF in CBP is ALOT different than playing CF in Coors... though I'm also considering the fact that we have some CF prospects that may be ready sooner or later and he'd still be a pretty good hitter in RF - especially compared to the other options whose bats couldn't prop their WAR up in the corner.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits....=2012#advanced

His numbers on the road are below average in almost every category. His walk rate at Coors is 14% and 10% on the road. That's a huge difference, not to mention a crazy change in approach. Even for his career he has a 13% walk rate at Coors and 10% everywhere else. 10% is good don't get me wrong, but you'd be paying for the 13%, when in reality he's not really delivering on that away from Coors.

As far as the fielding. UZR isn't great in a small sample sizes but over a large sample of games its pretty reliable. He has an average UZR of -12.9 a season. That's among the worst among CFs. That also takes into account ballpark factors. Moving him to RF, he loses most of his value. He'd be comparable to Dom Brown, and Brown is more likely to have a breakout than Fowler.

Here's a good article on Fowler. It's based around fantasy, but it goes into his advanced stats.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...ks-out-barely/

FLYguy3911 is offline