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12-04-2012, 01:54 PM
  #61
vikingGoalie
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sorry for the long post, but it's a slow day...

Quote:
Originally Posted by UnrealMachine View Post
Since we are speaking of systems, it would probably be more appropriate to limit the discussion to even-strength sv%. In that case for last season:

Sanford = 0.923, 21.64 EV shots/game
Fleury = 0.915, 21.85 EV shots/game

Not a good look.
On even strength is when the penguins tend to give up odd man rushes at a greater rate then most hockey clubs.

The thing is that I don't think I'm communicating well is this. Fleury was absolutely horrible last playoffs. I thought overall he played well in game 1 but the defense was really bad. That got into his head and things went further and further off the rails.

A goalie who faces predictable situations, where the defense prevents the other team from penetrating will have on average have better stats then one who faces turnover situations (can't predict those) and has people shooting at him from 15 feet away.

Being a goalie is a hugely mental position. If the goalie doesn't get settled, is thinking about how things could go unpredictable on him rather then just focusing on the shot. They will have a much tougher time making a save, and are more likely to make asinine mistakes.

In many ways, I thought that shot from Giroux in game 6 was one of his worst goals in that series. Because it was from a safe(r) spot and it was before any crazyness of the game could start getting into his head, not making that save totally deflated the team. It was a great shot, but it's a save that MAF has to make. He saw the puck the whole way and just had it blown by him.

Quote:
I am not going to claim myself an expert on the art of goal tending. Indeed, from your observations alone you would appear to have much more knowledge on that than I.

However, the stealing games part... outside of complete failing in the playoffs, my biggest grievance with Fleury is that I think it hardly ever happens.

We habitually outshoot and outchance teams, and by a good margin. While at our very worst Fleury is some times called upon to do way too much, the opposing goalie is pretty much always in that situation.

To me - the number of games lost explicitly because Fleury was horrible is clearly a lot higher than the number of games won because he was ace.
I agree to an extent. We out shoot (sometimes out chance) but % wise the quality of good chances fleury faces are higher. Perhaps not every game, but certainly in the ones we lose.

Thing is it's hard to prove this stuff with stats as a lot of it simply isn't recorded in a way to do analysis. The closest is to look at giveaways, but not every odd man rush seems to fall into that, nor cover some of the other d fallacies. Look at game 1 against philly. We out shot them 28-26, we had 8 giveaways compared to 3 from philly. What isn't reflected there is what happened after the giveaway so that might not be a good # to look at. Fleury's save % in that game was a horrible 84%. but you take away that biere breakaway and the OT winner that was caused by Letang tipping it over near Staal who couldn't be bothered to box out the crease or lift a stick and his save % becomes a respectable 92.3%.
(just to illustrate how quickly a goalie goes from a good save % to a bad one)

Fleury has to get more consistent, mainly he has to play his game and not let the odd man rush stuff not get to him. That's why there are people who hate him, and some people think he still can turn it around. I think he has the ability to win a Veznia, but I think to get there he needs a new goalie coach. I still point at Smith, he didn't get magically different going from Tampa to Phoenix. He had a goalie coach work with him on a few minor things, and he had a defensive system in front of him that limited high quality chances.

MAF is on a short leash next season. I think he goes in the tank, no matter the reason, he's gone.

To the point of this thread. I think the SCF runs Fleury had huge roles in getting the team there. The cup year he totally stole some games and helped us get past Washington and Philly. (although I thought he was not good the first 2 games against washington) While he got pulled in game 5 against detroit game 6 and 7 he was as a big reason we won those games.

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