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12-04-2012, 03:45 PM
  #472
Broad Street Elite
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Micahel Young had a -2.4 WAR last season (-1 oWAR and -2.2 dWAR).

Kevin Frandsen had a 1.5 WAR last season (1.3 oWAR and .3 dWAR).

I fully expect Frandsen to revert to mean with a .700ish OPS (put up .71 OPS in SF in his longest ML stint of 296 PAs), but, even if Young somehow defies time (or takes some PEDs) and rebounds this year I'd still put even odds on him having a lower WAR than Frandsen as long as the latters' dWAR stays slightly above neutral.

Again, we are excited to trade prospects for Michael Young because... he is a name we recognize from when he used to be good (offensively, at least)? If so, he'll fit right in with the rest of our lineup, unfortunately.
Look, I recognize that Michael Young is 36. However, looking at his career track, his WAR last season was a tremendous statistical anomaly. I personally believe that it's far more likely that Young rebounds to a level appropriate to the career decline he showed in every previous year (WAR was 2.4 in 2010) than it is for Kevin Fransden to even approximate the career best WAR he put up last year.

I see Young putting up a 1.0-1.5 and Fransden putting up a 0-.5. That means I can see some value in Young as an upgrade, but agree with your point about giving up any significant asset for Young. Something like a De Fratus for Young deal with Texas eating 6 million in salary would be in line with what I'd do.

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