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12-05-2012, 12:19 PM
  #77
Brad Tolliver
Terror Goes Into
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Overtime
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.

Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.

The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.
Kaepernick's game-by-game WPA before Smith's injury this season:

GB 0.02
DET 0.00
MIN 0.00
NYJ 0.06
BUF -0.08
NYG 0.04
SEA -0.02
ARZ 0.00

After Smith's injury:

STL 0.47
CHI 0.40
NO 0.30
STL 0.16

But but but but but but but it's skewed towards the games he barely played in!

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