Alex Galchenyuk Thread 6.0 - "Gally Got Backhand" Edition
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12-05-2012, 05:10 PM
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Originally Posted by
I know everyone seems to think that, and its possible, but a shorter season is a shorter sample size, meaning its far harder to predict.
The difference between 50 and 80 games is not that large.
Keep in mind that statistical fluctuations go as the square root of the number of games, so really it's only a 20% noise increase in spite of being a 37% decrease in the number of games.
It can mean the difference between 9th and 7th place, but most likely not the difference between 14th and 7th.
You list Toronto. Toronto was the biggest outlier out of 30 teams. Only one team out of 30 can pull that off.
Anyway, even without the draft pick, we benefit from a short season because:
- it burns 1 year off Gomez' contract, as well as Bourque's
- Gives is an opportunity to trade players for picks at the deadline in what will be one of the deepest drafts in NHL history. I was arguing this in the surgical tanking thread and people said "they say that about every draft !!!", but six months later 2013 is still considered a deep draft.
- Allows brief call-ups to our prospects in Hamilton to give them a taste of the big leagues. Tinordi, for example, is not ready for the NHL, but I think 2 games on the 3rd pairing might be good for him. Also, a 9-game callup for Galchenyuk.
- Facilitates decision making on the Plekanec-Eller-Desharnais issue. We know Therrien was considering experimentation to find out more.
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