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12-06-2012, 09:22 PM
Warm Cookies
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
1. ESGF/GA ratio- what is the ratio of GF to GA when the player is on the ice at even strength (with no numerical advantage/disadvantage)?

2. On/Off ratio- what is the ratio of the player's ESGF/GA ratio to the that of the team without him on the ice? I.e., how much better is the team's ESGF/GA ratio with him on the ice than without him.

For an alternative and perhaps a better explanation, refer to the link previously posted on Adjusted Plus-Minus.
Thanks for the explanation, and sorry for the lateness of my reply here.

Correct me if I'm misinterpreting the numbers, but wouldn't they suggest that Crosby's '11 ESGF/GA ratio and On/Off ratio were better than several of the names at the top of that list, including Lemieux and Jagr in '96?

If that's true, it wouldn't necessarily be the most accurate indicator of the best seasons, would it?

I understand wanting to compare "apples to apples", which is why I included a separate list of best PPG to start the season. However, I don't see why a 41+ game streak later in the season is not worthy of comparison. I would guess the last half of the season is tougher than the first half, at least for players who play most/all of the season. Teams and players are hitting on all cylinders and fighting that much harder for playoff berths, so the games tend to be more intense and difficult on average IMO.
It seems cherry-picked to me. We aren't picking the best "__" game segment to choose from Crosby, we're using all of the games he played that season. Using a streak of all the games a particular star played from the start of the season would be the best way to put everyone on a level playing field, I would think.

Besides Lemieux and Jagr's multiple seasons, some 41+ game streaks to start the season which you might look at are:

Lindros '95
Selanne '99
Ovechkin '10
All great years. But it is instructive to note that Lindros and Selanne both had First-Team All-Stars on their line (and still scored at lesser paces), and Ovechkin's center was 4th in league scoring. Crosby's linemates were Dupuis and Kunitz, who wouldn't be mistaken for First Team All-Stars or Top 5 scorers by a blind man in a dark alley.

Scoring at the pace he did with what he had to work with was always a big part of what made it so impressive.

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