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12-08-2012, 02:20 PM
Fish on The Sand
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nanaimo
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post
I would love it if people would read my posts and respond to what I am actually saying as opposed to browsing for key words and reacting.

I'm not saying that secondary assists are irrelevant. I'm saying that there were more than expected (a result of Martin Straka's abnormally high shooting percentage?) and that they prove Jagr was not alone. Even if there wasn't a marquee name out there with him, there were at least two competent offensive players touching the puck after Jagr on 39 occasions. That's 10 more secondary assists from what was typically expected from Jagr's career assist distribution. It isn't a federal indictment to say that on 10 occasions in an 82-game season, the bounces went the right way. That's one better than expected bounce every 8 games. One pass from Kip Miller to Martin Straka that Miller would typically flub. One shot from Straka that would typically go wide.

I feel like I'm Kevin Costner in Bull Durham, explaining this.

Jagr: 44 Primary, 39 Secondary; Expected Secondary: 29
Selanne: 40 Primary, 20 Secondary (6 fewer games); Expected Secondary: 20
Forsberg: 40 Primary, 27 Secondary (3 fewer games); Expected Secondary: 23

Until someone can explain to me the difference between a secondary assist and a good first pass that results in a scoring opportunity on which one of the other two players does not capitalize, I'm not going to believe that they're entirely free from scrutiny when they're unusually high.
I don't think taking a career average for secondary assists per primary assist is exactly a sound way to determine "expected secondary assists". All that does is show that he was outperforming his career averages as a result of what could literally be hundreds of different factors.

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