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12-08-2012, 03:03 PM
  #410
The Nemesis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calcal798 View Post
Im pretty sure Texas will being eating some of Youngs contract, but does clear up some money for them. Its BP depth going back right, nothing to big.
They'll most definitely be eating some of his contract. The whole point of this move is to free up regular playing time for Profar, so it won't matter to them if they have to pay some of Young's remaining dollars or if they don't get much back in return.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man Bear Pig View Post
Blows me away that people are so focused on age here. Dickey is a unique case. He's not a flamethrower, he's a knuckleballer who just won the top pitching award at 38 years old. The fact that people don't wanna deal Gose for a CY YOUNG WINNER makes me wonder whether some fans are prospect hoarders. Do I like Gose? sure I do but to hesitate on a prospect who hasn't shown he can even hit yet is foolish. Dickey could be the difference in getting this team to the world series and I'm sure he's got another 3 years of quality pitching left in him. The goal is to win championships, not hoard prospects.
The goal of the Jays was to build the system so it would be sustainable. If you want to throw the entire farm away for a couple of years worth of contending, fine. But be prepared to live with the team sucking again once the window closes and the core players begin to age past their best before dates. It's not hoarding prospects, it's smart asset management.

This is what I don't understand. People were raising hell during the last few years where the Jays sucked and especially during the Ricciardi years where we had no farm system to speak of either. But if you burn the entire org's worth of assets on some sort of supernova playoff push, then we'll be right back there within 3-5 years.

On the other hand, passing up short-term moves like Gose for Dickey is what will potentially let the team continue to contend for the foreseeable future, making trades when the organization has the assets to spare, and keeping others to be able to slide into the lineup to replace outgoing or diminishing pieces. Plus the Jays will have the cash on hand to be able to retain their good young players as their contracts come up for renewal, making this like the Rays system, but better (since it means not having to sacrifice the Crawfords/Uptons/Garzas/etc of the team when they become too pricey). And it means being able to make a Johnson/Reyes/Buehrle type trade on occasion when the team has a surplus (which they did here. Nicolino is one out of the 3 big Lansing arms the team had, and is potentially quickly replaceable i his role by someone like Osuna, Norris, Nolin, Smoral, etc. Marisnick is part of a group of low-minor OFs and is redundant behind Gose and replaceable with Davis. Hechavarria is the only one who has no immediate heir in the system, but the long term presence of Reyes gives the team more time to sort that out (though it does hurt not having him to plug in at 2nd).

Specific to this talk of Gose being traded, Goes is important because of Rasmus. We don't know this year if Rasmus will be the player he's always been expected to be, if he'll be the same maddeningly inconsistent player he was last year, or something in between. So if he's not the answer in CF, that's when Gose becomes important. Because even if his bat doesn't come around fully, CFs with elite level defence and baserunning don't grow on trees. He still represents a better, more cost-effective solution to the potential CF problem than overpaying on the FA market or praying some other team gives up on a quality CF. And if Rasmus does break through and become a solid regular, we still have Gose and he still has value in trade for next off-season.

I get that the Marlins deal has people itching to compete now. But you have to look at this logically. Anthopoulos has always said that his goal is to create sustainable competitiveness for the Jays. And he's doing that now. It's shortsighted to destroy all that work for just one or two years of possible contention. Baseball, more than other sports, is random in the playoffs. Detroit was supposed to roll through everyone to a championship. Didn't happen against an inferior Giants squad. Texas, who have built themselves up to a high-talent position the way they are now, had two cracks at it and couldn't get it done, and this year didn't even get into the playoffs thanks to the surprising surge of the A's and Orioles. The name of the game should be having as many good chances as possible, not loading up for a much smaller number of supposedly better chances.

and just to touch on Dickey, which has been done before, but bears repeating:

1) We don't know if pitching in a dome will impact the knuckler any. If it makes it any less effective, his value is basically shot.

2) He's 38. This cannot be underscored enough. Yes, being a low-impact pitcher reduces the chances that he ends up catastrophically blowing out his arm or hurting his ribs/abs/etc like high-force delivery pitchers, but being a knuckleballer doesn't make him magically immune to depreciation/skill degredation. Tim Wakefield, the patron saint of the "knucklers don't age" school of thought (and really the only fitting example. The other two pitchers in recent times that have thrown a knuckler, Steve Sparks and Tom Candiotti, retired at 38 and 41 respectively with multiple poor years to close out their careers), had 2 good seasons past the age of 38 (38 and 41) and was mediocre-to-bad the rest of the way. That includes his 42, 43, and 44 seasons all being pretty bad to downright awful. Granted he started as a #3 pitcher and degraded from there, but the point still stands. And there's no guarantee that you can count Dickey as an ace level pitcher either because:

3) We don't know how much of his Cy Young season is an aberration. It was already notably better than any other season he's put up in his career. He set a career high in IP by a notable margin, and had glaring improvements in his WHIP, H/9, HR/9, K/9, FIP, SIERA, etc. And given that Dickey is 38, his Cy Young season isn't likely to be a herald of him arriving for sustained dominance like say Justin Verlander or Roy Halladay. I'm not saying that he's going to suck. Provided he doesn't implode right away, he's probably got a year or two as solid high-end pitcher (probably a #2/3, but it doesn't feel right to talk up a deal expecting that we'd be getting 2012 game-changer R.A. Dickey in return.

Now if a solid high-end starter came available who was young enough to probably have 4 or 5 years of sustained elite performance, I'd jump all over that for Gose. But Dickey is just the wrong piece at the wrong time for the wrong return. I'd probably still be excited if Dickey was acquired, but it would be a tempered excitement that recognizes that the short-term gain puts us in a worse position for the long run.

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