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12-09-2012, 12:00 AM
  #201
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Ultimate cherry picking of data.
Really? All I said was "food for thought".

Quote:
Effectively all Vezina winners from the last ten played seasons were viewed as having NHL potential. The round they were drafted fairly reflects how long they would take to reach their optimum NHL performance.
I feel like a fool for getting roped into this argument, but here's what you said:

Watching major junior, university, minor pro, European or Midget AAA goalies or players and it is fairly easy to evaluate NHL potential or success looking forward.


And here is the result of that "fairly easy" task as performed by industry professionals between 1994 and 2004. The column labeled "drafted" is goalie-exclusive in order to give us a clean look at how the goalie talent each class was perceived at the beginning.

1994
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Vokoun68023 
Theodore6335Hart, Vezina, 2nd AS
Nabokov605221st AS
Turco54392nd AS
Thomas37820Vezina x2, 1st AS x2, Smythe
Hedberg35421 
Cloutier3514 
Grahame22424 
Storr2191 
Fichaud952 

1995
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Kiprusoff59912Vezina, 1st AS
Giguere5571Smythe
Biron5002 
Denis3494 
Boucher3243 
Johnson30916 
Mason30614 
Toskala26610 
Aubin2188 
Bierk4724 

1996
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Garon3232 
Esche18612 
Valiquette4620 

1997
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Luongo72712nd AS x2
Aebischer2141313
Clemmensen15217 
Holmqvist9914 
Hurme767 
Noronen712 

1998
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Raycroft28014 
Niittymaki23416 
Labarbera1605 
Sabourin5710 
Sauve323 

1999
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Miller46017Vezina, 1st AS
Anderson2948 
Auld2374 
Leighton10421 
Caron9512 
Prusek5720 

2000
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Lundqvist46822Vezina, 1st AS
Bryzgalov38532nd AS
DiPietro3151 
Cechmanek212192nd AS
Ellis1655 
Tellqvist1136 

2001
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Anderson2947 
Huet27229 
Budaj2596 
Smith22921 
Gerber22931 
Emery20710 
Leclaire1731 
Markkanen12816 
Nurminen12524 
Blackburn632 
Bacashihua383 

2002
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Ward4142Smythe
Lehtonen3441 
Harding1176 
Norrena10027 
McElhinney6924 
Deslauriers624 
Toivonen613 

2003
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Fleury4341 
Halak20427 
Howard1923 
Elliott18029 
Crawford1222 

2004
NameNHL GPDraftedAwards
Rinne250302nd AS
Dubnyk1012 
Schneider684 
Montoya571 
Ramo4819 
Greiss3810 


I trust I won't be accused of "cherry picking" a full decade's worth of data.

So, you have the simple task of showing us which season's results prove that NHL scouts (and with few exceptions, the hockey world as a whole) found it "easy" to evaluate NHL career potential by viewing goalies at the amateur levels.

TL;DR guide to the data above:

- No. of times the #1 goalie actually turned out to be have the best career in his class: 2 (Luongo, Fleury)
- No. of times the #1 didn't even meet the 30-GP threshold: 3 (1996, 1998, 1999)
- No. of times that a goalie taken <15th turned out to have the best career in his class: 4 (1994, 1999, 2000, 2004)
- No. of times that each of the top-3 goalies met the 30-GP threshold: 4 (1995, 2001, 2002, 2003)
- No. of times that 3 or more goalies chosen <15th met the 30-GP threshold: 3 (1994, 1999, 2001)
- No. of Vezinas won by top-5 goalies: 1 (Theodore)
- No. of Vezinas won by goalies drafted <10th: 5 (Thomas x2, Miller, Kiprusoff, Lundqvist)

If the above doesn't show that goalie development is utterly unpredictable, I don't know what else could. Someone better at math than I am could undoubtedly apply a formula to show that the distribution of success compared to draft-age evaluations is just a little better than random. I'd even go a step beyond, and say it's probably the least predictable of all the positions in major sports.


Last edited by tarheelhockey: 12-09-2012 at 12:22 PM.
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