Has Crosby peaked statistically?
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12-09-2012, 11:44 AM
Join Date: Jul 2010
Originally Posted by
How is that bad news for the Penguins? Pretty much most NHL players, even the true greats usually peak statistically between the ages of 21 and 25. What I mean by this is that they continue to put up better numbers than most of the rest of the NHL but in terms of their own peak (in terms of raw numbers) they usually never hit that number again after the age of 25. It happened to Gretzky, Yzerman, to Sakic, to Forsberg it even happened to Selanne.
Take Mario Lemieux for instance, he scored 199 Pts as a 23 year old and although he had 2 more seasons with 160 and 161 Pts, he never even again came close to 199 Pts.
Jagr peaked at 23 with 149 Pts eventhough he won 4 more Art Ross trophies after that season and had 3 season of 120 + Pts.
Peaking statistically doesn't usually coincide with peaking physically.
Lemieux was a better player in 1992-93 for instance (bad back and all) than he was in 1988-89. Jagr was a better player in 1998-99 than he was in 1995-96.
Many think for instance that in 2009-10 Crosby was a better overall player than he was in is 2006-07 season.
What these players have in common is that they continued to improve their games and probably dominated their competition to an ever large extent considering the league itself and linemates they had but they never came close to their career highs ever again after the age of 23-25.
That was in 96 and before the overall league drop off in scoring due to many defensive, strategy and goaltending reasons.
96 raw stats of 149 points compared to 99 when he had 127 looks like his peak was in 96 but when you adjust them it is 144 in 96 and 145 in 99.
League trends matter when comparing players seasons and talking about peak performance.
As for Crosby, health and line mates will be extremely important. It is unlikely that we are going to see any regression on the impact of defensive strategies and teams and goalies abilities to limit actual goal scoring.
Sids high for points came at 19 with 120 and goals in 10 with 51.
His PPG in the last 2 years (41 and 22 game samples) has been 1.61 and 1.68 so he has the skill and is still young enough to have a 50 goal 90 assist type of season.
It will really come down to health and a bit of luck IMO but it's very possible.
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