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12-09-2012, 04:24 PM
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Post #190

Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Is the claim really being offered up that it's easy to tell who the successful goaltenders will be at the time of their draft age, and that the evidence supporting this claim is the large number of goaltenders who weren't drafted or played for their WJC teams, but starred in the NHL?
Claim is offered in post #190, in response to a comment about evaluating competition looking backward. Claim copied below
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How so? Watching major junior, university, minor pro, European or Midget AAA goalies or players and it is fairly easy to evaluate NHL potential or success looking forward.
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In any NHL Entry Draft app 25 goalies are drafted. Generous estimate would be maybe 5% of eligible goalies in the hockey playing world. The remaining undrafted goalies with rare exceptions are never heard from again. Usually they are not chosen for WJ teams either.

The NHL Entery Draft for a specific year,offers a snapshot of the consensus top 25 or so goalie candidates for future NHL positions.More or less the elite. Later if organizational spots are open, non-drafted free agents may get a look.

Basically it is fairly easy to tell which goalies are not future NHL candidates by the time they reach 18.

Posters cite Dwayne Roloson who by the age of 18 had played all of 44 Jr B and C games. another 57 Jr B games total by the age of 20 before going to an NCAA school for four years. No NHL team would draft such a goalie. If he develops on someone else's nickle they will have a look later.

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