Has Crosby peaked statistically?
View Single Post
12-09-2012, 05:16 PM
Czech Your Math
Join Date: Jan 2006
Originally Posted by
Given Sids seasons before and after 11 and his age it's an entirely different context and set of circumstances than Mario's 01 run.
One of the major differences, and I'm surprised you didn't bring this up as it is your current flavor of the day, is PP versus ES scoring.
Mario ES in 01 was 43-18-25-43
Sid ES in 11 was 41-21-25-46
On the PP Mario was 16-16-32, Sid was 10-9-19
Of course Mario had the better PP unit as well, not sure who his linemates where in that year though.
It is really strange that you didn't bring this up though.
Mario played with Jagr in '01, the only time besides '97 that they steadily played together at ES. He had 3.5 seasons off before that and he never came close to matching that pace again, only playing more than 26 games once after that.
I expect to see Crosby's best in his next 2-3 seasons.
First, 25-28 is a very common age to peak. Some peak earlier, but these are often players who rely heavily on goal scoring and/or speed. Crosby relied more on speed in his first 3 seasons, but after his '08 injury, he has rounded out his game some. He has also become a better goal scorer, but would still be considered more of a playmaker or at least balanced. Some peak later, but these are more the exception among superstar forwards. Selanne's peak seasons were at ages 25-28, and he won the Rocket at 22, but then injuries hampered him. Sakic had his best season at 31, but he had a long prime that started much earlier. Even Espo's prime started in his mid-20s, and it could be argued that in terms of overall effectiveness, he peaked from ~26-30. Forsberg's best season was at 29, but that was after a season off and his prime was 22-30. It's just rare for a player to really hit another level past their mid-20s, unless there's a major change in circumstance, such as Espo or Messier. Speedsters like Bure and Kariya had their best seasons a year or two after missing most of the season.
Second, he will have a lot of rest. He has 69 games, including playoffs, in more than 2.5 years and counting. So it wouldn't surprise me if he peaked in his next couple seasons, especially a shortened season and his first full season. After that, he will face more wear and tear, and start to enter his late 20s. It will be harder to improve a lot from that point, although maybe he gets a better winger or the league changes/enforces the rules and creates a better scoring environment (which wouldn't make him better, but increase his totals). We've seen what a big factor rest has been in achieving peak seasons: Forsberg, Bure, Kariya... and Lindros had his best season in a shortened season.
Because Crosby does rely some on speed, and entered his prime early, and has had trouble with injuries, and will have the most rest he will have (unless injuries plague him further)... I really have to believe that it's very likely he won't get substantially better than he will be in his next couple of seasons.
Last edited by Czech Your Math: 12-09-2012 at
Czech Your Math
View Public Profile
Czech Your Math's albums
Find More Posts by Czech Your Math