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12-11-2012, 12:16 AM
  #123
quoipourquoi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
That's the main concern... nothing out of the ordinary... when he's been quite an extraordinary player.

Here's how some of the players previously mentioned have performed vs. what would be expected based on their regular season GPG & PPG each season they were in the playoffs. Ordinary would probably be ~5-15% decrease (85-95% of expected):

PLAYER, GPG, PPG
-------------------------
Iginla 103%, 90%
Turgeon 77%, 83%
H. Sedin 115%, 82%
Kariya 87%, 77%
D. Sedin 68%, 74%
Thornton 63%, 74%
Selanne 74%, 70%
Dionne 73%, 65%

Generally, the higher the starting levels and the worse the player's teams were, the more decreased one would expect. However, a decrease of over 25% is hard to ignore and difficult to attribute to just those factors. Modano was 89%/92%, which is about what one would expect given that it's more difficult to score points in the playoffs.
But you're only looking at career season numbers vs. career playoff numbers. Selanne spent 40.3% of his regular season games as a Top-10 regular season scorer, but only 24.3% of his playoff games as a Top-10 regular season scorer. It's obvious why his drop is severe if you're mindful of when he was recording the playoff GP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
i agree that all of those guys have playoff resumes that leave you wanting more, given their regular season statures. but at least for the guys on that list who peaked during the DPE, i think it's a little much to ask for PPG+ in the playoffs. i mean, even fedorov doesn't have that.
I think only 19 forwards have maintained a higher than PPG average in the playoffs since expansion after recording a full season's worth of games. Even a guy like Jagr is one lengthy run from Dallas from being in danger of falling off himself. But when Selanne was a top-10 scorer, he maintained a PPG average - and that's without ever having the luxury of beating up on an inferior team for some easy points. Probably the easiest series of his life was one of the ones against Minnesota or Vancouver - who in terms of defense and goaltending were probably the two best defensive teams in the league. And as good as he was in 2007, it's not like that's one of his top regular seasons either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I just don't remember much of that with Selanne. What have been the signature playoff moments or series for him? 8 points in 7 games to get he and the Ducks their first series victories, vs. Phoenix in '97? Goals in 3 of the last 4 games and single points in 6/7 games vs. Calgary in '06? I think it's probably his 6 points in the last 3 games vs. Detroit in the '07 WCF, to overcome a 2-1 deficit in the series. The last one is particularly important, as it was against a strong Detroit team and on the way to a Cup, but I guess I'd just expect there would be more dominating performances from such an outstanding player.
Two overtime games come to mind: The first was a tape-to-tape lob pass from his own blue-line to a streaking Paul Kariya that won Game 6 and forced Game 7 (Phoenix 1997). The second is the OT goal against Detroit. And don't underrate what he did in the series against Calgary. Game 6 saw the Ducks down by a goal, and Selanne roofed a backhand to tie the game. The referees called goaltender interference in a bogus call with which no one agreed, so Selanne went out and scored another goal to tie it.

His most famous playoff game was actually his first home game in the playoffs though:




I don't see why the fact that he led two of the first three best-on-best Olympics in scoring gets brushed off though. I know you know about it, but still, some people act like he couldn't perform under pressure, when it's really only a case of him recording so much of his playoff GP outside of his best years. I mean, he led the 2006 Mighty Ducks in playoff scoring and finished second on the Ducks in 2007 - those were the only two runs he had.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
I'd be cautious with the Hart votes. A great player on an otherwise lousy team is going to have an easier time standing out as an MVP than a player like Modano, who has other good players on his team.
You think Selanne had an easier time standing out when he was playing with Paul Kariya? Up until 2005-06, people thought Kariya stirred the drink. I mean, would a player placing #2/#2 in goals and points typically finish fifth in Hart voting? How about when they finish #1/#2 in goals and points and finish fifth again? Selanne is underrated by his Hart voting record. We saw in 1997-98 that he was capable of the same #1/#2 finishes (until he sat out the remainder of the season with injury and was passed up by six players) without Kariya, and that was the only time he was recognized. So no, I don't think there's any reason to believe he had an easier time standing out than Modano, because while Modano had a greater number of elite teammates, Selanne and Kariya were the #2 and #3 skaters in the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
Lets be fair, the Ducks weren't a downright lousy team for most of Selanne's time there. They generally were a .500 team. I agree, being on a better team does tend to help, but it's not like he was stuck on a total cellar dweller.
They would have been a cellar dweller without him. Look at 1996:

He joins the Mighty Ducks when they're 18-30-5 (dead last in the West the year before) and the team goes 17-9-3 the rest of the way. In fact, they only miss the playoffs because they have to chase down the team he played for at the beginning of the year! #4 seed the next year, with him playing all the way. They were lousy.

Mighty Ducks Goal Differential (Selanne's +/-)
1997: +12 (Selanne: +28)
1998: -56 (Selanne: +12)
1999: +9 (Selanne: +18)
2000: -10 (Selanne: +6)

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