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12-12-2012, 03:14 AM
  #583
4evaBlue
Corsi != Possession
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Disgruntled Observer View Post
So even though you haven't even seen most of the prospects in the league play at any level... you think you know better than consensus formed from professional nhl scouts.
As knowledgeable as the scouts are about the players they scout, players prove them wrong on every turn, either by busting, or becoming a "diamonds in the rough". Looking back on HF's previous years' top 5 prospects for each team, it's been shown that about half of them turned out to be busts, and from the rest, anyone with half a brain could have picked out players were going to be stars in the league.

When you take that less than 50% prediction accuracy from scouts observing a player, and you collect the observations from numerous scouts (with no real good way to standardize those observations), you end up with a pretty unreliable result. If they had to re-compile teams' prospect rankings from 5 years ago with 20-20 hindsight, the results would be vastly different.

They're doing the best they can, better than any of us could, most likely, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on any of their rankings.

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