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12-12-2012, 03:57 AM
Disgruntled Observer*
Join Date: Dec 2005
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
As knowledgeable as the scouts are about the players they scout, players prove them wrong on every turn, either by busting, or becoming a "diamonds in the rough". Looking back on HF's previous years' top 5 prospects for each team, it's been shown that about half of them turned out to be busts, and from the rest, anyone with half a brain could have picked out players were going to be stars in the league.

When you take that less than 50% prediction accuracy from scouts observing a player, and you collect the observations from numerous scouts (with no real good way to standardize those observations), you end up with a pretty unreliable result. If they had to re-compile teams' prospect rankings from 5 years ago with 20-20 hindsight, the results would be vastly different.

They're doing the best they can, better than any of us could, most likely, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on any of their rankings.
I don't base my opinions on prospects solely on ranking lists either.

But I certainly trust the opinions of dozens of professional nhl scouts MUCH more than random people on an internet message board who have a proven track record of being dramatically influenced by their pro-leaf bias.

When we show hf threads from four years ago, leaf fans rant and rave about how great the leafs prospects are. Those same leaf fans now call that team an "empty cupboard" and use it as an excuse for Burke's failures.
So you really can't trust what a lot of leaf fans say.
And I don't think most fans of other teams are like that. When most fans see their team (after four years) finish 5th last and have pathetically rated prospects, they get mad.... They don't make lame excuses.

I personally think the leafs prospects are entirely mediocre. I've been saying it very often for over a year now.
And it just so happens that both HF and the professional nhl scouts at the Hockey News entirely agree with me.

So it does beg the question...
being that Burke's team finished 5th last last season, and both HF and the professional nhl scouts at the hockey news think we have utterly mediocre prospects... how could people possibly still support Burke?
It really really is getting a little out of hand.

Disgruntled Observer* is offline