Lecavalier for Grabovski
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12-12-2012, 10:00 AM
Join Date: Jun 2011
Originally Posted by
Not fan of either team but this statement isn't completely right.
If you believe in corsi Lecavalier still (currently) seems to be more offensively gifted than Grabovski, while Grabovski seems to be more defensively gifted than Lecavalier (currently).
If you don't believe in corsi, well in the last three years Lecavalier has scored more per ice-time than Grabovski in 2 out of the last 3 years.
Of course, this is a shallow look at things as there are other variables (ex: linemates).
As a believer in Corsi, what I see is a guy who's 15-20 shots/60 better than the rest of his team, versus a guy who's 0-5 shots/60 better than the rest of his team. They're both on teams of similar ability, so that relative Corsi is pretty telling. I don't think the extra ~0.1-0.2 pts/60 makes up for it (which would work out to about 4-5 extra even strength points per season). For comparison, that Corsi differential would work out to a 300+ shot improvement over the team's shot differential without Grabo on the ice (which, at around a league average team shooting percentage, translates to approximately 25-30 goals over the season).
Maybe we can't attribute all of that differential to Grabo, but given past looks at him and the rest of the Leafs he seems to be the driving factor by a substantial margin. I'd take that kind of goal differential over an extra couple of individual points any day of the week.
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