Contraction a necessary evil for survival of NHL says economist
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12-12-2012, 01:50 PM
Join Date: Mar 2007
Originally Posted by
It comes from the fact that there is no way in God's green earth QC is a top 10 franchise in terms of revenue. They'll gate well but they have no chance of matching the bigger markets in terms of media exposure. Fans will point to gate attendance as if it matters. And it does matter ti an extent, but gate is only part of what makes up a team's real revenue streams these days. And for smart franchises, it's an ever diminishing part.
The only place Canada can compete with the US even in hockey, is in gate attendance. That's the old model -- you know, the one that is failing and dying and causing the league to fail and die when we can't let go of it. No other major sport tries to dictate its success based on gate attendance anymore. Once you get past gate and into things like media exposure and arena revenue, the US is competitive in those things and many US markets can blow the any Canadian market not named Toronto and Montreal out of the water.
QC is going to be in the same boat as Ottawa, Winnipeg, and the other medium to small Canadian markets. Based on your excellent attendance, you'll have enough from gate to scrape by. As the league modernizes, the role of those Canadian franchises will diminish more and more and the big US markets -- hopefully including markets like Houston, Seattle, and Atlanta -- will start to carry more and more of the weight as the NHL finds ways to successfully compete for the vastly greater number of US entertainment dollars that exist.
I'm not making any of this up. Barring a major economic disaster or some other unforseeable event, this is pretty much what's going to happen -- because it's the same evolution other major sports went through. We're just going through it later than them because we got our heads out of our buns and expanded past the O6 era much later than other major sports leagues did. At first the expansion teams struggle and the retrogrades demand retreat, then some of them figure out successful models of how to be competitive in their own market, those models are emulated and improved on, and eventually widespread success happens -- to the point that the original markets start to regress in significance. Which is really what many of the retrogrades are actually afraid of, when you really dig down to the core of their motivations.
QC had better attendance then many markets let alone the south, better than Winnipeg or Ottawa. QC will be fine. It will be a billionaires playtoy.
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