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12-13-2012, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
See below. Statistically, it looks like we'd be fortunate to get 2 bona fide NHLers out of our first 6 in the upcoming draft.
As others have pointed out, the success rate of draft picks is much lower than many assume it to be.

Based on the 1990s sample, a first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of being a career player.

Results can vary widely from year to year:
The 1993 NHL Draft produced 22 career players from 26 first-round picks.
In 1999, less than half of the first-round selections went on to become career players (12 out of 28).

Beyond the first round.

This is where the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:
From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round turned into NHL career players.

Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it.
From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.
For sure. We would be fortunate to nab 3, but that is the fortune I want.

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