2012-13 Colorado Avalanche Prospects Thread
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12-14-2012, 12:35 PM
Beer is good food
Join Date: Dec 2002
Originally Posted by
Good rebuttal. I understand more where you're coming from.
For me, the deal is this. Our young players ARE going to get better. I can say that with enough certainty based on 30 years of watching NHL hockey and seeing young star players play at age 21 and then seeing them at age 27...it's just not the same thing.
See, here's the leap of faith that I have difficulty navigating sometimes. A lot of times, young players do improve. No question. However, just because players are 21, does not in and of itself mean that they will improve by age 27, or more to the point, that they will markedly improve. In fact, they may regress. The Avs own recent history shows this.
In early 2006, the Avs had 3 pretty exciting young forwards named Stastny, Wolski, and Svatos - aged 20, 20, and 24 - who were very nicely productive offensive players - Stastny and Wolski were rookies who put up points, and Svatos was coming off a 32 goal season. Those players are now 26, 26, and 30. How many of those three 'got better' between then and now? Not only are none of them 'better', I believe all three regressed between those ages and now, two of them markedly so (yes, I understand Svatos had injuries). If Stastny hasn't regressed, he certainly hasn't gotten much better either. He's simply been the same.
So, just coming to the sweeping conclusion that young players will improve through osmosis leaves a lot of open space for error, IMO.
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