Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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12-14-2012, 02:03 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
In other words, I'm hungry for an analysis that offers the following percentages for each draft position:
chance of being elite
chance of being very good
chance of being good
chance of being a 3rd or 4th liner
chance of not spending significant time in the NHL
Those percentages then could be fed into a weighted formula (because the value of those results decreases as you move down the list) that determines the 10-year success rate of the draft position.
I've done this exact study. I haven't put it together into a comprehensive form for easy digestion but I have used pieces of it to help settle debates around the board from time to time. Try searching my name and the word "draft" for a primer. Eventually I'll get to releasing the whole thing.
I also think it's much too early to "judge" the 2006-2008 drafts, especially for defensemen and goalies. If you stick just to drafts where you're 100% sure how the players have panned out, you'll have more accurate results.
But the results of this study show the exact same thing I've always said - the higher up you're drafting, the more likely you are to get any caliber of player, regardless of what you set the threshold at - franchise player, star, above average player, average player, regular NHLer.
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