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12-15-2012, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Challenge to the statisticians:
If you look at these numbers closely, a concerning pattern emerges. Comparing the 5 successful rebuilds (total of 18 seasons) to the 6 unsuccessful ones (total of 27seasons):
a)successful teams were 3 times as likely to have a 1st overall pick (6 picks in 18 seasons or LR= .33 vs LR=.11 for unsuccessful teams)
b)successful teams had top-5 picks almost twice as often (LR 1.05 vs .59)
c)successful teams had slightly more top 10 picks, but the difference was not significant (1.1 vs .8)

Looking in the mirror, the Atlanta/Wpg rebuild has numbers that place it clearly in the 'unlikely to be successful' camp, by these criteria (no top overall pick and only 2 top-5s in 5 years)

It looks as if , during a rebuild, it's much better to be very bad (i.e., bottom 5) than mediocre, as Holden and others have pointed out.


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