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12-15-2012, 01:19 PM
Bob E
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Originally Posted by scelaton View Post
Challenge to the statisticians:
If you look at these numbers closely, a concerning pattern emerges. Comparing the 5 successful rebuilds (total of 18 seasons) to the 6 unsuccessful ones (total of 27seasons):
a)successful teams were 3 times as likely to have a 1st overall pick (6 picks in 18 seasons or LR= .33 vs LR=.11 for unsuccessful teams)
b)successful teams had top-5 picks almost twice as often (LR 1.05 vs .59)
c)successful teams had slightly more top 10 picks, but the difference was not significant (1.1 vs .8)

Looking in the mirror, the Atlanta/Wpg rebuild has numbers that place it clearly in the 'unlikely to be successful' camp, by these criteria (no top overall pick and only 2 top-5s in 5 years)

It looks as if , during a rebuild, it's much better to be very bad (i.e., bottom 5) than mediocre, as Holden and others have pointed out.

I believe there is a formula to winning a cup.

IMO, simply put, you need at least 2 scoring lines - so teams can not simply shut down a top player, or his line. Those two lines have 'elite' scoring and playmaking, and put up points consistently. Both can handle pp time with results and can win line match-ups. Then, a 3rd line that wins their line match-up by scoring modestly and being mostly a plus in (+/-), and a 4th line that can spell the other lines as much as needed and chip in offensively as well (but that's not that critical). A 4th line that can bang, create chances and is defensively aware - ideally two on that line are pk worthy and good at it.

On d, a top pairing with at least one offensive-minded guy who can be a pp qb, that will play heavy minutes without being physically overmatched. A 2nd pairing shut-down group that is very solid in their zone and is still competent offensively (strong outlet passes, good shot from point, etc.), and bottom pairing that is a bit of both, but not quite ready for heavy minutes.

In goal, a guy that can win games by himself, but most of all is a consistent performer who provides solid (and, at times when needed, spectacular play) goaltending game in and game out. Doesn't give up bad goals often, rather, he 'gets into the head' of opponents and gets them doing things they normally wouldn't when trying to score.

To me, 're-building' is really about getting certain type of players you don't have - to be successful. You can gain them via trade, or draft, but it's the type of player more so than where you pick - to complete your lineup. You can't simply pick elite goal scoring LW'ers each time in a top 5. That said, to get an elite player to generate points (elite winger or center - like P Kane, Stamkos, Toews, Malkin, Crosby, Tavares, etc) that's usually obtained with a the top 3 pick - maybe top 5. Same with that elite, top pairing dman, he is also usually a high pick as well. Goalies tend to be picked later, but i'd argue that likely arent going to find an elite goalie in the 7th round.

Thrashers took Stefan, Heatley and Kovy all in the span of a few years. Then took Coburn and Kari. That should have been the foundation of a very strong team going forward. But for Atlanta, Stefan was a bust, Heatley drove impaired killing Snyder and Kovy eventually had virtually no one to play with. They lost patience with both Coburn and Lehtonen and moved them. They almost lost patience with Bogo after 3 yrs. The Thrashers, under different ownership and circumstances, may have been a successful franchise. They had the draft picks to be a strong team.

As for the Jets rebuild, i feel we have an elite scoring winger in Kane. We need an elite center, and maybe that's Scheifele one day, not sure. In the meantime, Oli slots in there as a very good stop gap. I don't think Burmi will become an elite 1st line center, but that doesn't mean he's not a valuable player moving forward. He has elite skill, but hasn't put it together, yet, to generate points. If we pick early enough in 2013, another elite level forward would look good. Next, Little, Ladd, and Wheeler (with two of those players taken in top 5), are a very competent scoring 2nd line - and are all reaching their prime. Our third line of Poni, Burmi and Antro could be a 3rd line that wins most match-ups, but i'm a bit concerned that all three need new contracts for 2013/14. Potentially all three could not be Jets next year (if Burmi signs in KHL, for instance). I also don't see many 3rd line wingers in our system - telegin, meh. I consider a guy like Jannik Hansen a very good 3rd line winger, and would love to see the Jets acquire him in a trade. Slater is a very good 3rd or 4th line center and pk'er, imo. Other young players - Cormier, Machacek, Klingberg, etc. - could fill the remaining 4th line spots.

On d, slick puckmover Enstrom is signed long-term. I'm comfortable Bogo will be locked up long-term, as well, so i see that as a very good top pairing duo with offense and defense capabilities. I think Trouba is a very solid #3 dman (when he arrives), and Stuart, Redmond and Postma round out the bottom pairing. I don't see Buff in the mix long term (maybe that's just me), so a future LH 2nd pairing shut-down dman is a 'need' for me going into the draft (say, Nurse or Morrissey-type) though, I see a 2nd rnd pick used on a player like that.

In goal, Pavy is signed long-term, has shown some flashes but is terribly inconsistent - perhaps due to his conditioning and preparation, etc. Hopefully he matures to the point where his game improves and he can be a solid performer game in and game out.

Anyway, i guess what i'm saying is...

1) if Scheifele can grow into a very good 1st or 2nd line center in next 2 yrs,
2) if Trouba develops into a solid #3 shut-down dman in next 2 yrs,
3) we can grab an elite forward in the 1st rd of 2013 draft (may be a top 5 or 10),
4) we can grab a shut-down dman in the 2nd rd of 2013 draft,
5) we select a goalie of the future in the 2nd rd of the 2013 draft,

... then our 're-build' looks pretty good. We also have Buff to use as trade bait to get a player we lack once Trouba arrives, say a solid two-way player for our 1st or 2nd line ... or 2nd pairing dman, that might speed up this process a bit.

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