Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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12-17-2012, 12:22 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
I'd also urge people to be careful when evaluating old drafts. There reaches a point where things start to normalize but before say 1992 there was still a pretty big stigma about drafting Soviet and Czechoslovakian players. It led to a lot of unpredictability about whether or not said players would even be able to make it over, which led to a lot of elite level players even then slipping. 90 for example had Jagr, who was the consensus #1 or #2 player in the draft IIRC, ending up at #5, Kozlov in the 3rd, Zhamnov in the 4th, and Zubov in the 5th. Even 5 years later there's no way that happens.
91 had Kovalev at #15 and Ozolinsh at #30 for similar reasons.
It's the biggest reason I typically use 1994 as my base date when I do these compilations. Though an argument can certainly be used for 1992 as well with Hamrlik, Yashin, Kasparaitis, Petrovicky, and Nazarov all going top 10, with Gonchar and Straka also being first rounders.
And any Soviet Bloc pick from before 1989 can't be taken seriously when using it to make a list like this. The guy that was arguably the best goalie of all time was taken in the 10th round in 1983 for that reason.
You’re right, but my project doesn’t exclude players like that, nor do I plan on it.
At any given time, teams draft players based on their upside and their likelihood of ever reaching that upside at the NHL level, as well as how widely known the previous two factors are. Some teams thought highly of Hasek’s potential but apparently not very highly of his likelihood of playing. In the annals of history, the guy is just a late round steal, like Alfredsson or Kaberle.
There are players just like that today, the only difference being is that there are no political roadblocks anymore, just skill-based ones. But in principle players are drafted in the same way.
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