Thread: Justin Schultz
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12-17-2012, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
What norm are you talking about here? This notion of "regression to the norm" is one of the most badly abused concepts on these boards. In the context you use it it has almost no meaning.

If what you are trying to say is that 10% would be exceptional for an NHl player, then yes I agree. However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
26 games is not enough context. There is alot of variance that can happen in 26 games compared to a whole season. If you don't understand the concept of regressing to the norm then look it up.

Over 80 games, over several seasons we see what a players norm is.

I would be curious to know what his shooting % was like in the last 2 years in a weaker league.

I looked it up 16 goals on 110 shots is 14.54 (37 games)

The season before is 18 goals on 108 shots which is 16.666 (43 games)

In his rookie year in the WCHA it was 6 goals on 61 shots good for 9.83

Compared to Smith from Detroit at the same school his shooting % is better but it's still a long way to translate that into the NHL.

Last edited by Hardyvan123: 12-17-2012 at 11:26 PM.
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