Thread: Justin Schultz
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12-18-2012, 11:53 PM
  #577
Hardyvan123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Based on your own words:


I am going to guess that it might be you who does not understand the concept of "regressing to the norm". (By the way, the reason I use quotes is because the actual term is regressing to the mean. In mathematics a typically norm is an abstract length function defined on a vector space over either real or complex scalars.

The concept you are quoting is repeatedly butchered on these boards. In the context in which you have used it it does virtually nothing for your argument. Let me give you an extreme example of why your previous statement suggesting that "all players regress to the norm" is dubious. Since you have not made a case that this principle only applies to SH% I can assume it also applies to goal scoring. The mean number of goals per player is about 10. If I buy what you wrote then I can conclude the Steven Stamkos should be expected to regress to that level in the near future. after all you have rejected the idea that it is possible that elite skill might lead to statistical outliers.

I'm not a mathematician but all players regress to their norm to me in simple terms means that over a long period of time a player finds his consistency or value point. His college shooting % is lower than his 26 game %, he will regress back to his norm (and then further adjust lower to the increased skill level of the AHL and NHL over time).

Maybe regressing to "the norm" was the wrong term to use, it sure would be in your Stamkos case. Stamkos is an elite goal scorer and his norm is at or near the top of the league in goal scoring and this translates into around 50 goals per season (although their is some variance here). his top goal scoring status should continue to be "his norm" over a season, despite peaks and valleys within those seasons, until something major happens, like aging, injury or Marty St. Loius retiring and the new line mate being a complete step down from him.

Every player has "their norm" and over any season they will have peaks and valleys, it is the rare 82 PPG player that gets points in every game or 10 points in every 10 game segment.

If I have butchered the term "regressing to the norm" I apologize for the confusion but it's alot more understandable than the "dead puck era" ripoff from baseball tern that gets thrown around even more often. the puck, unlike the baseball, was never dead.

Clutch and Grab era would be more accurate.

I have made it pretty clear on how his long range shooting % will most likely come down for a couple of reasons in previous posts.

I also think that Schultz's norm isn't 115 points in an AHL season but given the super 3 guys with major NHL experience in Eberle, RNH and Hall, he might have a 100 point season in him but I would bet really good money against it.

The bet would be made on logic and evaluating factors, I really like Schultz as a player.

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