Thread: Justin Schultz
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12-19-2012, 12:18 AM
  #582
Hardyvan123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
What norm are you talking about here? This notion of "regression to the norm" is one of the most badly abused concepts on these boards. In the context you use it it has almost no meaning.

If what you are trying to say is that 10% would be exceptional for an NHl player, then yes I agree. However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
the context is quite simple. Schultz has a shooting % of 19.2 (26 GP-14 G and 73 SOG). Schultz has taken 2.80 S/game.

Now let's look at all of the Dmen total's of shooting % who shoot over 2 shots per game, to take out guys that shoot a couple times a year and I'm actually being very beneficial to Schultz here.

I'll go back to all post lockout seasons.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

So all this talk about Schultz shooting % in the NHL between 10-12% is possible but extremely unlikely given only 9 guys have done it in the 7 seasons since the lockout (after taking out the 1 and 14 game guys).

Now let's take a closer look at how all Dmen have done overall since the lockout.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

we can see that those Dmen who averaged more than 10% have 2 things in common

First they all have very low shots totals and low SPG as well.

The only guy who has a large sample and plays full time on a PP, both of which Schultz is expected to do, is Visnovsky at 9.5%.

Now maybe Schultz will do better but the actual chances of him doing so, and at a 10% clip for any period of time seems really low, especially given that in the 1st list no player did it in 12 with the bigger shift to defensive play in then 2nd half of the season.

Quote:
However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
The REALITY is 26 games in the AHL, the history of the AHL is littered with many players who scored at exceptional rates for such short periods of time and many had little to no NHL success.

Now I'm fully confident that Schultz will ahve a very good NHL career but all this mumbo jumbo about elite NHL skills and maintaining a shooting % of 10-12% is just nonsense at this point.


Last edited by Hardyvan123: 12-19-2012 at 12:24 AM.
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