IIHF World Juniors
View Single Post
12-22-2012, 11:17 PM
Join Date: Jun 2009
Originally Posted by
I understand the differences in expectations between juniors and pro leagues, but the point remains the same, you'd like to see progression. If a former first round pick in juniors doesn't improve his point total in the two seasons following his draft year, there is huge reason for concern. However, that doesn't mean at the pro level that is not concerning at all. If a guy comes into the NHL and doesn't make statistical progression in his first three seasons, concern starts to creep in there somewhere.
In no way am I even using this to say that Armia isn't developing how I'd hoped as development isn't about statistics. But as someone who has only had limited opportunity to watch him play, I'm just saying it is mildly concerning to see.
It's not a perfect system, but just to compare...based on NHL Equivalencies (0.45 from SM-Liiga to NHL), his current PPG pace in Finland equates to 15 points (~10 goals) over an 82 game season in the NHL if he were to come over next season.
From his draft year to his post-draft year, his points/game went up. This year, his goals/game is the highest it's been since he turned pro. I think you're getting yourself too wrapped up in his assist totals this year, which appears to be both an outlier and a mirage, givens that he appears to be Finland's best playmaker this far (along with Barkov).
I'm not saying that you have no right to be worried, but I keep hearing from people--not just you--about how concerning his numbers are this year just because he doesn't have many assists. I don't think it's that big a deal.
View Public Profile
Find More Posts by Zip15