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12-24-2012, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
and on your savard example...the reason his stats by themselves mean nothing is that there have been other players that put up huge numbers in juniors and then do nothing. marc savard scored 139 points in the OHL and then went on to have a pretty good nhl career. but corey locke scored 151 points in the OHL and then went on to pick up 1 assist in 9 games in the nhl cause he wasn't good enough to even make the nhl, no less be a top line player. So i'm not sure how you can argue that savard scoring 139 points is proof that he is a future star. cause based on that same logic locke should have been a superstar if you ignore everything else.

Focus here. Go re-read what I wrote about because I purposely repeated it about 4-5 times, each time differently, hoping that you'll read it at least once.

... It really sucks that nobody is teaching statistics in high school and barely in college... I hate having to constantly explain to people how life is not a 0% or 100% choice...

What I discussed was about odds, which is the best we can do when it comes to prospects. There's no certain way to predict anything, but some things improve the odds and some things reduce the odds.

Does Savard and Locke scoring big in the OHL prove anything with 100% certainty? No. But would they have been better off had they scored less? Do you prefer that our prospect scores more or less?

If McColgan's offensive numbers didn't plateau and he had scored 120 points in his pre-draft year, do you think he would've still been available in round 5 or would he have gone in the top-3 of the first round? If McColgan scored 150 points this year, do you think we'd be doubting if he'll get an NHL contract?

What's the difference between Thomas and McColgan? One scored at a decent pace and one didn't. One is regarded as a top, though risky prospect and one is regarded as a barely a prospect. Does that guarantee that Thomas will be a star goalscorer? Of course not, but to suggest that his better offensive numbers do not give him better odds of making it is preposterous.

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