View Single Post
Old
12-28-2012, 04:35 PM
  #40
regehr
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Mars
Posts: 746
vCash: 500
I think the NHL can support 28 teams (19 US, 9 Canada) -- 4 divisions of 7.

looking at the numbers there are 21 teams who sold out 96% or more of their home games (all of which averaged at least 16.7k/game with the exception of Winnipeg, whose arena only holds 15k):

1 PHI - 107.4%
2 CHI - 105%
3 TOR - 103.7%
4 PIT - 102.7%
5 VAN - 102.5%
6 WSH - 101.3%
7 OTT - 101.1%
8 DET - 100.7%
9 BOS - 100%
9 CGY - 100%
9 EDM - 100%
9 LAK - 100%
9 MTL - 100%
9 NYR - 100%
9 SJS - 100%
9 WPG - 100%
17 BUF - 99.9%
18 MIN - 98.4%
19 STL - 98.2%
20 NSH - 97.5%
21 TBL - 96.2%

From there, it drops to 5 "bubble" teams in the 86-87% range - these teams are OK, but not great - I could see one of these teams not making it (with NYI possibly improving with the move to Brooklyn).

22 NJD - 87.4%, 15.4k/game avg (#1 media market - New York)
23 FLA - 86.6%, 16.6k (#16 media market - Miami)
24 ANA - 86.4%, 14.8k (#2 media market - Los Angeles)
25 COL - 86.1%, 15.5k (#17 media market - Denver)
26 CAR - 85.9%, 16.0k (#24 media market - Raleigh)

From there, it drops to 4 weak teams in the 72-81% range - all of which avg'd < 15k/game. These teams look like candidates for contraction or relocation (again NYI might move up and one of the above 5 could move down into this group):
27 NYI - 81.3%, 13.2k/game avg
28 CBJ - 80.8% , 14.7k
29 DAL - 76.8%, 14.2k
30 PHX - 72.5%, 12.4k

Additionally, Quebec and a second team in Toronto are likely do-able.

So 21 solid + 5 bubble + 2 relocation = 28 teams.

regehr is offline   Reply With Quote