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12-29-2012, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by FiLe View Post
Nuh-uh. Doesn't work like that. This is hockey, not poker.
If we have two games in which if we lose twice, we are ****ed. The odds favor us in a way that of four games we win three times against both opponents (75% chance of a win). If we win the first one, we have nothing to be scared of, if we lose the first one, we have 75% chance of not being ****ed.

Before either game is played we have a 93,75% chance of not being ****ed (in this case in the relegation round), after the first game we either have 0% chance of being ****ed, or 25% chance of being ****ed.

Of course this was a simplified version of the chances but you can put your own "pre-set odds" in the math and see that after the first loss there is more of a probability to end up in the relegation round.

So after the first loss, there is a reason to be more anxious than after a win. How doesn't it work like that?

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