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12-30-2012, 12:53 PM
  #83
livewell68
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[QUOTE=daver;56920249]
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Originally Posted by livewell68 View Post

Age 22, Crosby wins the Rocket, barely loses the Art Ross and is third in Hart voting. Not much difference.

I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that the PPG pace Crosby has put up over the last two seasons is reality. He scored 120 as a 19 year old. He was due to step up those numbers as he got older. I think he would have had higher numbers if he only focused on offense like Jagr. Throw in his superior playoff numbers and yes, Crosby has reached Jagr's level.

Doing this while establishing a solid, if not very good, defensive game, is the difference. If he is able to put up a few seasons with legacy type numbers, I think his competitiveness and his ability to become elite in whatever facet of the game that is needed to win will place him among the very best.
I really don't think you understand what playing more games does to your PPG, you really don't.

I will give you one of Jagr's seasons as a prime example of PPG dropping when you play more games. In 1999-00, Jagr got off to a blistering start, he had 32 goals and 39 assists in just 39 games for a total of 71 Pts, that's a PPG of 1.82 which is higher than Crosby's 1.61 in 41 games in 2010-11. Over 82 games, that means Jagr would have had 150 Pts while Crosby would have had 132 Pts. Do you know what happened to Jagr that season in 1999-00? He got injured and missed 19 games, when he came back he only managed to score 25 Pts in his last 24 games. He missed a total of 19 games that season and despite that put up 96 Pts in 63 games for a PPG of 1.52 which is very good but a massive drop from the 1.82 PPG he had in the first half. As the course of any season progresses, it becomes harder to score as teams are battling for playoff positioning and start to tighten up their defense. If Crosby plays the remaining 41 games, what's to say his PPG doesn't drop to below 1.50 (closer to 1.35 PPG) which was his career average at the time?

In regards to Jagr only focusing on offense, when you score at the pace he did, there isn't really a need to play defense. His vastly superior puck possession game was his defense. His +/- numbers in his career are proof of this, despite playing on usually mediocre to average defensive teams most of his career. This "defensive" game argument is something that people use to defend a certain player when they know that this certain player loses out to the other player on offense and sometimes in decisive fashion. It is the end result that really matters and not the way you do it (the way you do it is subjective), the end result had Jagr being vastly superior over his peers. When Crosby won his only Art Ross trophy, he won the award by a total of 6 Pts. He has never distanced himself from the rest of the NHL, ever. In two of Jagr's Art Ross seasons he won the award by 11 and 20 pts respectively. In another one he won his by 2 Pts despite playing 9 games less than his nearest competitor.

Crosby has only had one truly dominant season and that was in 2006-07 when he was a sophomore and where he scored more than 50% of his points on the powerplay. Jagr has had 5 truly dominant seasons in his career in 1995-96, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2000-01 and 2005-06 and in all those seasons he finished in the top 3 in evenstrength scoring sometimes leading the entire league by wide margins. Crosby has yet to sniff at this level of dominance. BTW that season where Crosby won the Rocket, he tied for it with a sophomore player and probably doesn't even look at the award if Ovechkin doesn't miss 10 games.

Jagr's 1999-00 season was so dominant before his injury that made him miss 19 games, that with those 71 Pts in his first 39 games, he would have still finished in the top 25 in scoring.

Crosby's 66 Pts in 41 games in 2010-11 doesn't even put him in the top 30 in scoring.

Crosby's got 4 Art Ross trophies to catch up to Jagr. He's 25 right now.

By the age of 29, Jagr already had 4 Art Ross trophies and by the time he turned 30 he had 5 of them and he loses out on 2 (1995-96 to Lemieux and 1996-97 to Lemieux and also due to only playing 19 games).

Crosby better get healthy fast and better start winning those Art Ross trophies before he hits 30 or otherwise, the first 10 seasons of each player's career will go to Jagr in a landslide decision.

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