Thread: Speculation: More Luongo Talk
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01-01-2013, 06:54 AM
Ronning On Empty
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
Hmm...In what way is Meszaros comparable? Mezsaros was 24 at the time of his trade. He was a former calder candidate who wasn't living up to his potential on an awful Tampa team. Ballard is 30 and coming off a concussion. At the time of the Meszaros trade, the cap was also increasing, so a 4 million gamble on a top 4 defenceman was realistic. Meanwhile, now the cap is significantly decreasing and Ballard has become a 6/7 d-man.

Incorrect, Ballard is not a 6/7 d-man. There's a case to be made that he did better than Salo last year defensively. If you can say that, then there's no way he's a 6/7 dman.

Ballard signed his contract in 2008-2009 under a 56.7m US cap. 4.2m per for 6 years, under a smaller than 60m cap, so I'm not sure how a 60m cap is going to be catastrophic for his contract?

Meszaros should have garnered more in trade, yet we saw the Ballard was the one able to pull in a 1st and Grabner, despite being 28 at the time, to Mesz's 24... Meszaros was a struggling PMD with a 4.2m contract, yet he only pulled a 2nd. This should give you an indication of how Ballard was valued by GMs around the league two years ago.

If Ballard is able to rebound and put up good numbers for the rest of the season, then yes, his trade value will singficantly increase. However, as it stands now, he's coming off a major concussion. Concussions, currently, are the value killer, and the norm is for players to come back much worse than prior to their concussions.

And no...I didn't just stat check him. I live in Vancovuer and see 20+ Canucks games a year. You rarely see Ballard contribute, as he's just no on the ice that much.

Is he concussed right now? I thought he came back off of his concussion to rebound at the tail-end of last year? Why would him having a concussion that long ago be relevant now? Especially when he has come back and played well?

On Ballard's contribution: The way the Canucks utilize Ballard and their 3rd/4th liners has a direct impact on his point totals. AV uses an asset deployment strategy that has the widest zone start spread in the league. With Ballard, if the team staples him to the 3rd and 4th line forwards, then gives him a 44.5% Ozone start percentage, odds are he's not going to generate a lot of offense. Specifically when all said defensive forwards want to do is push the puck up the ice and get off to allow the Sedins or Kesler to take further advantage of their Ozone deployment.

He has to produce more. I don't disagree there, but how much more is the question. Given all the circumstances, I don't expect more that 14-18 points. He gets no PP time. He seldom plays with the twins. And his ice time is supplanted by Edler and Hamhuis. Tough to rack up the points in that environment.

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