Round 2, Vote 8 (HOH Top Goaltenders)
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01-02-2013, 05:55 PM
Join Date: Dec 2007
Originally Posted by
Playoff GVT of Post-Expansion Goailes
GVT is Tom Awad's Goals Vs Threshold metric. A GVT of 0.0 indicates "replacement level goaltending." I'm not including Original 6 goalies, because replacement level in a 6 team league would be much higher than in a larger league.
Note the following:
From 1968-1975, it took 3 rounds to win the Cup. From 1975-1979, it took 3 rounds for division winners, 4 rounds for non-division winners. After 1980, it took 4 rounds to win the Cup. Since GVT, has a Time-On-Ice component, more rounds means more chances to rack up a high GVT in a single season.
GVT is based off save percentage (and TOI), and has many of the same weaknesses as save percentage: namely a goalie like Barrasso who played on a run and gun team will be underrated. And if you think Thomas's save percentages are helped a little bit by the team he plays on, the same would be true about his GVT.
Since GVT is based of save percentages, any unusual ability at puckhandling (either good or bad) will not be included. Neither will any arena effects.
Data only goes up to the 2010 playoffs (Awad posted a 2011 update, but the playoff data is incomplete or corrupt). TCG PMed me Thomas's 2011 numbers, but doesn't have Luongo's numbers from that year).
The following goalies are listed in order of their career GVT in the playoffs.
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +15.0 (1993), +7.3 (2000), +6.8 (2001)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -2.5 (1995), -0.7 (1997), -0.1 (1999)
Career GVT: +42.2
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +18.9 (1996), +4.2 (1999), +3.4 (1986)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -2.1 (1992), +0.2 (1989), +0.6 (1987)
Career GVT: +31.8
Thomas (stats don't include 2012)
Only three playoffs: 13.9 (2011), +7.4 (2009), +1.2 (2008)
Career GVT: +22.5 (as of 2011)
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +13.9 (1991), +8.4 (1992), +5.9 (1996)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -2.5 (1999), -2.4 (1995), -1.8 (1985)
Career GVT: +25.0
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +10.9 (1969), +8.1 (1970), +3.2 (1972)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -3.4 (1977), -1.8 (1967), -1.8 (1980)
Career GVT: +16.6
Roberto Luongo (stats don't include 2011 or 2012)
Only 3 playoffs by GVT: +11.5 (2007), +1.7 (2009), -2.3 (2010)
Career GVT: +10.9 (as of 2010)
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +8.0 (1986), +7.8 (1984), +2.4 (1983)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -5.7 (1983), -2.1 (1981), -0.9 (1990)
Career GVT: +10.7
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +10.0 (1969), +2.6 (1975), +2.4 (1976)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -4.1 (1978), -3.2 (1977), -1.4 (1981)
Career GVT: + 10.6
Best 3 playoffs by GVT: +3.7 (1971), +1.9 (1973), +1.1 (1972)
Worst 3 playoffs GVT: -5.7 (1975), -4.7 (1970), -2.8 (1967)
Career GVT: -7.7
Curtis Joseph's high number is largely driven by his performance in the first round, where he played the largest number of his playoff games.
1st round: 39-29, .922
2nd round: 20-29, .914
3rd round: 3-8, .899
Beezer looks good on a career basis because he only had one single playoff year below replacement level (which is unusual - first round losses are often below replacement level since the number of games is so small). He also only has one good long run, but what a run it was!
Barrasso's career number is hurt by weak runs early and late in his career. Nonetheless, his prime numbers playing behind a run-and-gun team are quite impressive.
Thomas has a short career, but his playoff statistics have been great every time.
Interestingly, from a save percentage and GVT standpoint, Cheevers' 1969 was his best playoffs, even though Boston didn't win the Cup.
His +3.2 in 1972 has to be one of the worst numbers ever for a Cup winning goalie.
Luongo's career number should be higher if 2011 was included, possibly enough to pass Cheevers. Even if his finals were negative, it's tough to make the finals in 30 team-era without above replacement level goaltending through three rounds.
Liut was certainly up and down in the playoffs
Vachon was great in 1969, but otherwise didn't impress in the playoffs
Giacomin is the only post-expansion goalie considered who was below replacement level for his career. He never had a great playoff run, and by this metric, has two runs where he was farther below replacement level than he was above it in his best run.
Cheevers only played in 8 of the 15 games. Eddie Johnston had better numbers than Cheevers. But Cheevers did shutout the Rangers in Game 6 of the finals in NY.
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