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01-04-2013, 07:24 AM
yer leadin me astray
WhiskeyYourTheDevils's Avatar
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Originally Posted by Kevin8se7en View Post
I'm sure every sports station and HF will make this who "darkhorse" thing play out for the draft, just like they did with Matt Duchene Ryan Murray and Adam Larsson, but in the end, Mac and Jones will be going #1 and #2 just like how predictable it always is.

Every single year the #1 overall pick is OBVIOUS, but people try to make these arguments over why another could or should rise, fall, or whatever.

The #1 rated prospects always go #1...
Year - Player who was rated #1 - Player who went #1
2012 - Yakupov - Yakupov
2011 - RNH - RNH
2010 - Hall - Hall
2009 - Tavares - Tavares
2008 - Stamkos - Stamkos
2007 - Kane - Turris
2006 - Johnson - Johnson
2005 - Crosby - Crosby
2004 - Ovechkin - Ovechkin
2003 - Fleury - Fleury

The exception being 2007, when most people believed Turris was a "project" and that Chicago would take Kane because they already had Toews at center. This was a case of a team picking based on need, because the #1 ranked and #2 ranked guys were so close.

The same thing happened in 1990 with Owen Nolan. Mike Ricci was ranked #1 with Nolan being a hair behind him, but since Quebec already had a Center in Mats Sundin (1989), they drafted Nolan (RW).

Even in 2003 with Fleury... he was projected #1 by far, and Florida even traded down because they didn't want him. He still went #1 though.

Basically, the #1 overall pick has been very predictable for over 25 years, so it's pretty safe to say MacKinnon is going #1. If by any chance Edmonton got the #1 pick again, they would likely trade down to #2 and take Jones. Either way, definitely not Drouin.

IF Drouin was a hair behind Mac (Which he isn't), the only way he would go first would be if a team needed a winger more than a center. So unless the Penguins or Kings are picking 1st overall... It's not happening.
The #1 is obvious a week before the draft. In Januray, that's not always the case. In 2011, Couturier was believed to be #1 for a good while, and RNH was just getting on the radar after missing the WJC cut. In 2006, Kessel was expected to contend for #1. Yakupov, Tavares, Stamkos, and Crosby were the only truly obvious #1 picks in January since the last lockout.

Things can still change at this point of the year, and it occurs often enough to legitimately discuss Drouin overtaking Mackinnon.

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