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01-04-2013, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Frankenheimer View Post
I don't see how it would be possible to be more than 3% "right" under the best case scenario. For every actualized trade, there must be dozens of deals that are discussed in which GMS express "interest" in other players. If you report on all them and are only "right" when a deal is made, then nobody under any circumstances can be expected to predict futures trades remotely accurately. They are the outcome of lengthy processes and horse trading until both sides are more or less happy but which can blow up at any moment. How anyone could possibly model that process even with access to all the information at all times is unimaginable. Even GMS probably have little idea of what trades are going to happen other than "hey, id like to move this guy if the price is right."

All journalism and reporting depends on a certain level of trust that is independent of predicting future events. I also don't recall Eklund explicitly claiming what he does as predictions. He calls it reporting on what insiders are saying. Either he has that access or he doesn't, but being right on trades says very little about it. It's theoretically possible that everything he says is 100% accurate and yet would only call a tiny percentage of trades correctly.

I also don't doubt that GMS use the media to spread trial balloons, create interest, or use misdirection, which would add to the failure, again, while being 100% accurate in terms of reporting the actual information.

I'm not saying he's not a fraud, he probably is for a number of other reasons, but not because of the number of trades he calls.
Just about every “respected,” mainstream media personality has a better success rate than Eklund. This is for a variety of reasons mainly that they actually are connected and have legit league sources. Another reason is that they don’t make trades up, but rather comment on the ones they’re hearing could take place. Again, they don’t come out and say this will 100% happen and then backtrack when the trade doesn’t happen. They hear a deal could be in the works and they report that. No embellishment to try and sell more ad space but just the facts. Due to his sole reason d’etre, Ek must float these rumors from literally, any source. We’ve seen examples of this with trade rumors from this board being reported on his site. How anyone can claim he hears them from a reliable source is beyond me.

When the crux of your business is prognosticating player trades and movement and your accuracy rate is 3%, I think that should leave you to open criticism. When your success rate is less than what the average Joe could guess and you’re making money off the fact that you’re a professional it’s easy to see how this could lead to resentment as his pretext of being a professional is obviously fraudulent.

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