Lockout VII: I've walked for miles, my feet are hurting
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01-04-2013, 11:35 AM
Originally Posted by
Can you explain how this would happen?
Keep in mind this is all averaging of numbers to keep the conversational scope under control.
- 30 teams @ 50% of HRR
UFA Thunderdome scenario:
- 10 teams @ 75% of HRR
- 10 teams @ 50% of HRR
- 10 teams @ 25% of HRR
That's break-even - both scenarios generate the same revenue for the PA. Individual players are unlikely to do worse, as what will happen is marginal players who were already being paid below average shift towards the bottom-spending teams and the higher paid guys shift upwards. Add in the fact that HRR is actually likely to be higher in the second scenario than in the first scenario because the well-supported teams will be more likely to make deeper playoff runs, and it ends up being a positive move for the PA.
Of course there are an uncountable number of possible scenarios - the above is just one, meant only to illustrate that their is in fact much logic behind the PA walking the decertification path IF owners insist on too low an HRR percentage. If you redo this using the 57% share in the first scenario, then Thunderdome looks less desirable.
The PA is not (currently) acting stupidly. And they are being guided by a damn smart, experienced labor leader. There is no reason to believe they haven't looked very very closely at such scenarios.