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01-06-2013, 12:08 AM
Nullus Reverentia
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Originally Posted by Cashville View Post
Canada will still have the highest proportion of NHLers to national population. US hockey awareness is gaining and its demographic advantage is too large. Eventually the US will likely have the most NHLers and likely the best national team at some point, whether that is 2030 or 2050 I have no idea. I don't think that's a knock on Canada at all; just a numbers game imo.
The numbers don't really work like that. It won't keep going up, eventually it'll plateau, look at the other three big American sports, only football is domianted by Americans, the other two are increasingly more diverse (30 years ago there was probably only MLB players from 3 or 4 countries, now they've got roughly the same amount as the NHL has, the league is about 70% American and it's dwindling every year).

I know a majority is only 50+ percent but I think that's highly unlikely. For the US to get over 50%, they would need to more than double their current NHLers, and unlike they have in the past they'll take those numbers from Canada, and despite Canada's struggles in minor hockey lately but unless something catastrophic, the US won't get that for a very long time. You've got to assume unless hockey losses popularity immensely, Canada will always have at least 30% of the NHL, and I have a hard time believing they'll drop much farther from where they are now as the percetange has stayed pretty firm for a while. The Euro population of NHLers seems to be rebounding as well.

If all things go well, the percentage of Candian players won't drop by more than 5%, but I can't see it dropping below 40% by 2030. The US is producing elite talent at the level of Finland who's had a really rough time with elite skaters over the past 10 years.

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