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01-07-2013, 03:00 PM
  #111
Czech Your Math
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Excellent way to look at it, CYM!

And it makes perfect sense, too... from 1976-1979, the NHL was more watered down than ever before, with 18 of the 28 "top" pro teams, and with arguably 10 of the "potential" top 30 scorers in the world in Europe.

I think 2007-2012 is a pretty strong period, though, and history will absolve it.

'01 - '04... yeah, it was a pretty bad time. But also, that wasn't when Selanne was at his best, racking up high finishes. So it didn't really affect him.

Not that I am over to the Selanne side, but you are definitely making the better points here.
Thanks. It seems pretty obvious to me, even if some want to hide their heads in the sand in deny it. It's only less obvious due to the more recent additional competition obscuring the strength of the era (e.g., by hurting every player's rankings in each season).

I mostly agree with you about '07-'12. First, the '07-'10 seasons generally aren't as weak as the other two periods, nor as '11 & '12:

'11 & '12: 98.3
'76-'79: 101.3
'01-'04: 105.0
'07-'10: 107.6

As already mentioned, there are still players from each of the more recent seasons, who are not only active but likely to increase their average of best 3 adjusted years:

'07- Crosby
'08- Malkin
'09- Malkin, Crosby, Parise
'10- Crosby, Backstrom, Stamkos
'11- Perry, Stamkos
'12- Malkin, Stamkos, Giroux

The other active players (even the Sedins and Spezza) are not likely to significantly improve the average of their best 3 seasons. It would take a 15 point increase over their third best year to increase their average 5 points, which would increase the average for that year's top 5 by 1 point. I would guess '09 & '12 have the largest chance of a significant increase, followed by '10 & '11. The third best seasons of Parise (76), Backstrom (74), Perry (74), and especially Giroux (50) are each ripe for substantial improvement. Still, it's going to be difficult for '11 & '12 to climb too far from the bottom.

2011 is a particularly weak top 5: the Sedins, St. Louis, Stamkos and Perry. St. Louis has the best 3-season average of the top 5 at 106, although Stamkos could improve his 103 average. The only seasons since expansion that might be comparable in that respect are '04 (St. Louis at 106, Naslund 105... Sakic 117 but really no longer in peak form) and '94 (Oates at 106 and an older Gretzky).

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