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01-07-2013, 09:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Well said. I think there's a lot of confusion by those putting Crosby close to Jagr's level at this point:

A) Crosby being better at age 18, 19 or 20 basically has nothing to do with who's better in their peak/prime years. It did give him a big head start in career value, but that's been dissipated by his injuries and Jagr's vast improvement in his early 20s.

B) Crosby is not close to being on the same level offensively as Jagr was. It's not a small difference of < 5% or something. Crosby would have to increase the average of his top 3 and top 5 seasons by 22% & 28%, respectively, to match Jagr's. He would need to hit a much higher full-season level, stay healthy, and maintain/improve that level for multiple full seasons to have a chance to be near Jagr's level. Being close to Jagr's level for 20 games or 40 games is pretty insignificant, as most are looking at value over multiple seasons (i.e. hundreds of games).

C) Being able to do more things well does not necessarily mean being more effective overall. Crosby is not a shutdown forward, he's a scoring forward, same as Jagr. The value they have is in the offense they bring and the net advantage they create compared to them not being there. When they are not playing they have no value. Whether the net advantage is created by pure offense, keeping possession in the offensive zone and opening up the ice for teammates, or helping out on the defensive side is not so important.

When you look at their data, Jagr created a lot more offense, created a lot more net value by his presence (ES data such as adjusted plus-minus, record of team with/without him, etc.), and has been a consistently durable, valuable player in his 25th season of pro hockey. Crosby has a long, long way to go before there's any reason to compare the two.
Too bad so many people buy into this myth of Crosby having reached Jagr's level of dominance. Not in our Reality though.

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