Luongo: Is the light getting brighter?
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01-08-2013, 04:16 PM
Ronning On Empty
Join Date: Aug 2006
Originally Posted by
And on that point, my last, I see where some of the separation begins.
At 5.3M I can only imagine Luongo being a discount on that figure for 3-4 years
. He may match that figure but by no means perform better then it. Thus I see him declining somewhat around 36/37 from elite status.
With that being considered, 3-4 years of advantage, maybe 2-3 years of debatable market value leaves about 4 years where he will perform below that cap hit. Say he retires before the contract is over so 3 years. Plus 3-4 years of a dead cap space penalty and you have about 6 years where the cap hit versus his ability would be a detriment versus 3-4 years of real value.
Not what I would consider fair or not even the slightest problem.
Ok, so that's where we disagree. I see 5-6 years of high end play.
Even in your scenario, it's 3-4 years of high end play, 1-2 years at fair play (because there will be a transition phase), and 3-4 on the decline with him retiring in the 1st or 2nd year of this last section (likely), that's still 1-2 years of play _at_ his cap hit. Not below.
Now this all depends on salary/cap-hit values increase in the new CBA. They've limited long-term length to 8 years, so in order for better players to get accurate salary, the cap-hits will be higher than what we have known on average. Kypreos has said as much on the FAN590 (today in fact). He gets it. Thus, it could be that 5.3m cap hit is seen as _very_ favourable as we go on here. But time will tell.
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