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01-08-2013, 11:13 PM
orange is better
than other colors...
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Originally Posted by
Sorry to interject. However, I would point out that if we do stuff like that then Subban is MILES ahead of Chara because of how much significantly better Subban's 1st two years have been than Chara's 1st two years were. Would you take Subban over Chara for the next 3 years? Right now, who would you rather have, Chara or Subban? Most teams would say Chara unless they were a rebuilding team. Using your logic, though, Subban will be even better than Chara because his 1st two seasons in the NHL were significantly better than Chara's.
The whole problem with potential and figuring out values is that people always assume their rookie WILL achieve that great potential. The reality is that far more fall off than jump on, so to speak. Yes, Couturier shows the potential to be like or even better than Plekanec. However, it was ONE season. He may very well regress, or slow down in his development, or any other number of things. Potential is not a guarantee. That is why a player in his prime is going to be worth more, to certain teams, than a rookie who might exceed, equal, or never get to that established player's value.
I seem to recall having this exact same argument with some Philly fans after JvR had his great post season run a few years back. He was also untouchable and would become the next best thing to sliced bread. Where is he playing, again? I am not trying to be a smart@$$, just making a point about how perceived potential is not always better than actual proven production. If you tell me Couturier is better than Sam Gagner, I agree in a heartbeat. If you tell me he is better than Plekanec, I would say not yet, and maybe not ever. "Potential" vs "Actual". Something to think about.
agreed to a certain extent, except when it comes to defensemen, things get more difficult to tell, which is why you see many more failed high picks at the position. Chara was probably not the best comparison either considering the dude is a giant and was probably still extremely awkward when he entered the league
. And your point on potential is noted and i agree, and i would whole heartedly support your claim if i were defending the potential of a kid who was yet to play in the league. we've seen, completely disregarding numbers, the talent couturier has first hand, and my position is based solely off of watching his game closely all season, granted it's still
opinion and nothing more, but i believe there to be a little bit more than simple ambiguous potential there.
when i speak of "value" however, i speak of actual player value in the most realistic sense possible. typically, teams tend to give up more for the young blue chip kid with tons of potential than the 30 year old vet who's been there, because why give up the assets for a guy who nearing the end of his prime, when you can use them for a kid who hasn't reached it yet? it's more of a gamble and i get that, but that's the reality of value in this league. However, i fully understand your position. we're all guilty of being pumped on our own prospects, especially when they show us glimpses of what they can become.
and i remember the many, many arguments regarding JVR. i think it was mostly us trying to trick ourselves out of the disappointment. we all had such high hopes for JVR when he was drafted, and who wouldn't for a 2nd overall pick? especially when your team just finished a season with 56 points... he looked like a stud and then got here and was, for the most part, underwhelming. he showed flashed of brilliance and he still to this day has unreal natural talent. if he can put together, that kid has the ability to be scary good, but unfortunately i was a bit skeptical of him after his first season even. i never really saw that heart in him that you need to take advantage of the talent.
but i would not compare JVR to couturier. you can blatantly see the difference in them as players and as people. JVR is such a nice kid (i've had the pleasure of meeting him a couple times) and a hard worker, but couturier has that certain something. you can't explain it, but the way he plays the game and sees the game is vastly superior to JVR in almost every way.
Last edited by orange is better: 01-08-2013 at
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