Thread: Prospect Info: Rangers Prospect Poll: #6
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01-11-2013, 03:09 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
Fogarty seems to be yet another big guy that everyone pretends has high potential because everyone (understandably) wants us to get a power forward.


A. STATISTICS

- He was #6 in scoring on his BCHL team. While the total was high, it's due to the inferior level of the league and to be only #6 on the team isn't great.

- He then slipped to #8 on his BCHL team in playoff scoring. To score only 0.5 points per game against such weak opposition is not great. (Maybe he was told by the coaches not to try hard? Maybe he plays better with superior linemates? Maybe not.)

- He's now tied for the 14/15 place on his college team.


B. ACHIEVEMENT

- Failed to even come close to making Team USA in this year's WJC, the last he's eligible for.

- Merely a 4th liner in college this year.

- - Last year, his post-draft season, you'd expect that he would be a first liner on the BCHL team, even a strong one (because even a strong BCHL team is still far inferior to a decent college team). Instead he was merely an average player on his BCHL squad.

- Once you get out of the top-15 draft picks, power forwards have the lowest odds of cracking the NHL for the position they are drafted in. That's because everyone drafts them early and whoever is left for later rounds is usually not very good, with rare exception. While a regular third rounder has a 10% chance of becoming an NHL, power forwards are below 5%. That he lasted to round 3 isn't great.


C. SCOUTING REPORT

- Good size, good shot, not a great skater and will need to improve significantly, non-existent as a playmaker. Seems to be a slower, weaker version of Yogan, but with more time to develop, so he has more time to show improvement.


Not sure he deserves to be ranked very highly right now. While you can come up with an excuse for any of these (being outscored by undrafted players means nothing, his playing on the 4th line means nothing, he can still improve his skating, etc), I'm having a hard time pointing to something that actually speaks in his favor. Good size and a decent shot is not enough for the AHL, much less NHL.
Holy generalizations batman.

Did Fogarty kill your dog or something?

I am far from a Fogarty fan boy but the kid was drafted as a long-term project who is currently only a freshman in college.

You present a lot of information and statistics that one can derive from score sheets and researching the internet. A lot of that honestly is irrelevant in regards to his future and NHL potential. With most of these kids you really have to watch them play live numerous times and observe their progression. There's a lot of things they could excel at on the ice and have improved upon that you can't see on a stat sheet.

Patience, my friend.

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